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November 08, 2005

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» Why vote? from Make My Vote Count
An old favourite of the economists - why bother voting? It's a bit of a silly one, because it's based on a premise that covers but a small portion of voting motivation, but interesting to think about nonetheless. What am... [Read More]

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The Pedant-General

"Sounds logical? It's not, says Searle. There are no odds - not even billions to one - that would induce him to accept a penny in exchange for a risk to his son's life."

not even billions to one?

Bollocks. If someone came up to me and said "I'll give £100 and pay for the ticket if you take your son on a plane with you", I would grab it. There is a good statistical chance - much shorter than billions to one - that the plane will crash and my son will be killed, but we simply wouldn't get out of bed if we worried about stuff like that.

The irrationality is slightly different: it concerns our ability to assess risk. If your chap had some diabolical device with a lump hammer aimed at my son's head, and which had a neatly arranged mechanism that released the hammer every x button presses, then one would be sceptical.

Where the risk is not one we encounter everyday, humans are very bad at assessing extremely long odds.

The irrationality in voting is nothing to do with costs and benefits: It is a game theory problem, hence the nonsense of tactical voting (and especially the subsequent complaining about the outcome of tactical voting)...

Toodle Pip!
PG

dearieme

I conclude that Searle's son was not in his teenage years at the time.

chris

P-G - a very good point. But it's about the importance of the way choices are framed, rather than about the unimportance of symbolic rationality.
Of course, parents risk their kids' lives every day, and so make instrumentally rational (or not) decisions.
But Searle faced a differently framed problem - an explicit threat to his son's life. Within this framework, symbolic rationality took over.
Put this another way. No-one would think Searle a bad parent for putting his son on a plane, because millions of parents do that. But Searle was (by hypothesis) being asked to put his son in a unique position. That raises doubts about what it means to be a parent, in a way that plane flights don't.

The Pedant-General

Chris,

I think I agree with this. The irrationality comes from playing a game with extremely long odds only a very small number of times (or only once). This is where casinos make their money: they take 1 or 2% from an extremely large number of plays. The punter - on the other side of the equation - is looking for the statistical outlier - the one in a million chance that just happens to be his. The casino cleans up on the 999,999 punters whose 1 in a million chance didn't come up.

Searle's analogy is this in reverse. I wouldn't stick my child under the lump hammer, because the 1 in a million chance might be mine...

However, I still don't agree that this analogy applies to voting. That is still game theory and we all know that some game theory problems can have peculiar/non-intuitive results.

PG

rjw

A very similar issue comes up in a debate I know rather well over environmental policy. The economist says we should weigh up and aggregate the costs of reducing pollution, compare to the aggregate of benefits, and fix an instrumentally rational , or optimal, level of pollution.

Others have argued that our tolerance or otherwise of damage to the natural environment is a social value - our choices reflect the type of society we live in (in the same way, for example, that our attitude to abortion might) - and that a cost benefit analysis is therefore inappropriate. You can't simply aggregate individual costs and benefits. It's the interpersonal shared values that matter. In philosophical terms they say the economist are making a category mistake. A prominent example of this view was Mark Sagoff's "the economy of the earth".

In this case I'm on the side of the economists, on the whole. But at a certain point it is no longer black and white. For example - hypothetically - would we accept pollution that wiped out anyone and everyone over the age of 80 without fail?

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