Globalization and social mobility

In that speech yesterday, David Cameron claimed that "social mobility has fallen - to a lower level than in the 1950s." I guess he was referring to this paper.
Here's my theory. Social mobility in the UK (and US) could decline further - because of globalization. It rests on three premises.
1. There's a distinction between "hard" skills and "soft" ones. Hard skills are technical ones, like engineering, software programming, and data analysis. Soft skills are things like negotiating skills, salesmanship, communication skills, the ability to  get on in "teams".
2. Globalization means demand in the west for hard skills will weaken, relative to demand for soft skills, because the hard skills will be more easily offshored. There are countless Indians or Chinese who can write software as well as an Englishman, and cheaper. But there are much fewer who can write good English or sell a house.
3. Bright working class youngsters, relative to middle-class ones, have relatively more hard skills than soft ones (There are of course countless exceptions.) Think of the dweeb, geek, Northern chemist stereotype - people like us. Or alternatively, consider Ewart Keep's theory, that soft skills are often just a proxy for being middle-class.
These three premises imply that the prospects for upward mobility by bright but poor youngsters will decline, because the well-paid jobs (requiring hard skills) they have climbed up into in the past will be done in India and China. Middle-class youngsters, with their softer skills, are less vulnerable. 
Now, I'm not offering this as an explanation for the recent decline social mobility - globalization probably hasn't gone so far yet. But it could be a factor in years to come. 

Comments

[James G]

Good points, but what about the level of salesmanship shown by your average spiv/barrow boy type? :-)

Actually, I appreciate what you have to say regarding the hard vs. soft skills. I began my IT career in hard skills, but am now finding myself managing a team with about 15 Indians on it. I don't believe I've used a hard skill in the execution of my job since about 2001 or so.

[dsquared]

You appear to leave out of your analysis "thick working class youngsters with good soft skills", which I would expect to be a quite material category. And since they are now receiving a university education, they will get on much better.

[John East]

Inspiring insight, a great post. I observed such pressures within industry over recent years.
I was a working class geek who chose a scientific career path which I thought to be consistent with my personality strengths, and weaknesses. As the years passed, UK science jobs began to disappear, and colleagues increasingly emigrated, often taking their jobs with them. I had to choose between moving myself, or changing by adding to my repertoire some of the softer skills you described like buying, selling, and developing more managerial and communication skills. I chose the latter, and it was not an easy transition. I was often struggling to compete with lesser qualified middle class colleagues to whom the soft skills appeared to come quite naturally.

[John East]

dsquared,
A thick person will still be thick whether or not he/she is awarded a degree under Tony Blair's "All shall have prizes" scheme.

[guerby]

Soft skills are rendered less necessary by the internet in some areas: with who do you negociate when you buy over the internet ?