Brown: victim of framing

Why are Labour MPs so irate now about the harm done to the low-paid  by the abolition of the 10p tax rate, when they were so quiet when the move was announced a year ago?
It can't be because they've only just noticed the effect. The IFS pointed out that the move would hurt those earning under £18,500 the day after the 2007 Budget.
Instead, there are two other possibilities.
One is self-interest. Back in March 2007, everyone knew Brown was about to become PM, so Labour MPs didn't speak out against the Budget in the hope of getting a ministerial job. Now, though, those hopes have been disappointed so MPs have less to lose by speaking out.
The other is a form of framing effect. Last spring, Brown had a high reputation, at least in Labour circles. And as the saying goes, if you give  a man a reputation as an early riser he can sleep till noon.  Now, though, Brown's reputation is much lower. So even his unchanged policies are judged more harshly.
What's changed, then, is not the policy towards the low-paid, but the frame through which it is seen.

Comments

[MatGB]

Or alternately they were expecting an election and thought a headline basic rate cut would be good to get those important swing voters on board and they could do something next year (like an allowance increase) to help those (like me) hit badly by this?

But my money is on the 4th option. Too incapable of paying attention, that's what you get with so many safe seats and apparatchiks.

[Ken Houghton]

In the context of MatGB's coda, someone--you can do it--needs to analyze growth policies against Participatory Democracy in the allegedly-democratic countries (at least one camera elected by vox populi). I'm inclined to give odds that a legitimate 2SLS analysis would show a significant, positive correlation with legislative turnover.

The spanner is whether change to a fairly steady body (the House of Lords, the U.S. Senate) has the same sign; I'm inclined to bet it wouldn't, but can't quite justify that instinct.

[Mark Wadsworth]

Agreed.

They've had a year to kick up a stink (MPs from whichever party who are now kicking up a stink) - the maths of who wins and who loses was explained on about half of all 'blogs within a couple of hours of last March's budget and well known to everybody who can open a newspaper within 24 hours.