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March 04, 2013

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paulc156

We are still very reliant on trade with the Euro area as opposed to Germany for instance who do so much trade with the BRICs. This must place a real limit on the benefits of any reduction in Sterling since the Euro area is in such dire straits. We will however suffer the consequences of higher import costs [including fuel prices]as households take the brunt.

Twist Barbie

That increased level of intra-firm trade is generally supposed to be transfer-proced on an OECD/arm's length basis - ie at a market price. But if it the case that the increased intra-firm trade causes a previously well-validated indicator to break down, might it not mean that the intra-firm trade is mis-priced (against a true economic price) so that if it were priced properly then the correlation would reappear? (so you have found a diagnostic showing that the transfer price is "wrong").

Blissex

BAH! I think that intra-firm trade may be a small factor, but my guess is mostly that 1997 to 2007 are the ten years where:

* Sterling was strong because of the large profits from the second North Sea oil export boom as this extremely important graph shows:
http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/output_en/Exports_BP_2011_oil_mtoe_GB_MZM_NONE_auto__.png
In 1997 to 2007 sterling was in effect a petrocurrency.

* Financial sector profits were strongest due to exceptionally loose policy, as to both economic and regulatory policy, with an extraordinary credit boom fueled by insane leverage ratios and sterling's very strength.

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