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April 01, 2014

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Alex

However, the pound fell by 20% in late 2008 without a major stimulatory effect.

> there's a reason the car industry is doing so well.

Neil Wilson

"This might be sustainable for a while - we're starting with low net overseas liabilities - but it can't last forever."

It can last for a very long time - until the exporters decide to change their policy stand in fact, and at that point it may slowly decline over a very long time.

There is no basis for this belief that the trade deficit is 'unsustainable' at all. None whatsoever.

It is formed entire on the incorrect understanding of the causality - which in reality likely runs from the trade deficit to the budget deficit, for the fairly obvious reason that the trade deficit is caused by excess saving.

The way you have full employment is to declare the unemployed to be employed, pay them a living wage and get them something to do: http://www.3spoken.co.uk/2014/03/full-employment-is-when-everybody-has.html

It's called a Job Guarantee, and it's dead simple.

e

Perhaps he is promising but a political undertaking with no expectation of any impact on the economy. I suspect him of priming the ground to laud as a success for Conservative full employment policies, Community Work for Benefits, IDS’s proposed next step.

Metatone

As you "free up" trade you lose your levers for controlling trade deficits. Throw in massive consolidation in manufacturing, but also digital services (there is only 1 Facebook and if you don't have it, you're paying a foreign body to advertise there) then there are structural deficits which are basically impossible to overcome…

Not sure where you go from there...

Mark

There may be another explanation for the positive correlation between inflation and unemployment since 1997. Many of those in work on low wages would be better off unemployed and on benefits. Unemployment goes up, the incomes of the poorest in society increase, inflation rises. Unemployment falls the poor are worse off, inflation falls.

Keith

Slaves are usually fully employed. I take it that is the sort of full employment this regime want. But that is not really what it was taken to be under less reactionary governments.

Doc at the Radar Station

You could use Import Certificates...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_Certificates

George Carty

Yes, but to implement such unilaterally we'd have to leave the EU. And UKIP aren't advocating this (or any other protectionist measures) AFAIK...

Blissex

The usual link to a graph showing how quickly and massively the UK has switched in the past few years from an oil exporter to an oil importer:

http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/output_en/Exports_BP_2013_oil_bbl_GB_MZM_NONE_auto_M.png

Note that consumption is going down, and yet imports are growing fast, and the latest data is not there, and it is much worse.

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