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June 04, 2015

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Blissex

«these sort of people who have, in politico-speak, worked hard and played by the rules. And yet they've seen their position decline relative both to lower-paid workers and the top 1%. Their response to this, in some (many) cases has been resentment against the political class generally: [ ... ] someone on the sort of decentish wage that gets him and his family into to the 65th-85th percentiles.»

When I read the media read by the 65-85th percentile people, the Mail and the Telegraph, I get a completely different impression.

The 65-85th percentile is largely made of people who live in the South East, work in the licensed professions and in finance, are middle aged and older, started working when final salary pensions were the norm, and bought their houses in the 80s and 90s.

These people don't care about wages or unmployment or benefits, because they think their jobs are secure and because they have been making 10%-per-month profits on their leverage property speculation, tax free and effort free,, for 30 years, by voting for Thatcher, Blair and Osborne. That's has made them rich beyonmd their dreams, not working hard, even if some did, and certainly not playing by the rules.

So from the Mail and the Telegraph my impression is that these people love their political class for delivering for 30 years massive tax-free effort-free capital gains on property, and resent the Northern scroungers who they think gobble up their taxes to live lavishly on benefit way above average earnings in mansions with many empty bedrooms.

They love their immigrants from very poor countries because they can pay them a lot less than those Northern scroungers, and pack them 4 to a room or in thei garden sheds for huge rents and (often) tax-free profits.

These people are the 65-85% that actually exist and vote in the UK.

magistra

Blissex,

If the people at the 80% have a household income of just under 50K a year, they are almost certainly not middle-aged professionals, because middle-aged professionals normally earn quite a bit more than that (especially since most of them will be duel-earner households). What profession do you know where at the relatively senior levels you'd get to after 20 years or so of career you're earning less than 40K? And as for the regions, only about 30% of Daily Mail readers are in the South-East: see http://www.mailclassified.co.uk/advertising-tools/regional-splits. I know you don't want actual facts to dilute your rants, but the lack of evidence is getting fairly tedious.

rogerh

I reckon the voters can have as much resentment as they like, Cameron has no need to care a toss until 2020 or more likely 2025. On past history 2025 is the likely time all the chicken come home to roost. So the question to my mind is - how will the economy develop in the next 10 years - will we see the middle and lower middle classes getting stronger and more confident over the next decade?

I suspect we will still be muddling along, probably a little bit worse off. Big corporates will pick and choose and play one off against the other. No miracle inventions will be ours alone. Our political zeitgeist will still hover halfway between Europe and the USA. Therein lies our undecided (undecidable) future - Tories as Republicans and Labour as Democrats or do we have Tories as the Moderate Party and Labour as the Social Democratic Party - or vice versa if you prefer. Neither most like, most likely we will get an unreconstructed Labour party in 2025 and repeat the same sorry cycle over again.

Blissex

«the media read by the 65-85th percentile people, the Mail and the Telegraph,»

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/advertising/
"Average age 62"
"The average AB Telegraph reader has savings of over £100k"
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02520/Our_audience___pdf_2520793a.pdf
"ABC1" 87% (and I remember seeing "AB" as 60-65%; the Guardian reports their ABs as 59% of their readers).

«The 65-85th percentile is largely made of people who live in the South East, work in the licensed professions and in finance,»

The 65-85 percentiles are the midpoints of the 7th, 8th and 9th deciles and this handy table shows fairly detailed numbers about the median (gross) incomes in those deciles:

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/mar/25/uk-incomes-how-salary-compare

These go from 24,800/y for single adults at (around) the 65% position and £91,100y for 2 adults and 2 children. A lot of licensed professions and jobs in finance give incomes around those points, perhaps not in London, or major South East urban centers. Also there are quite a few licensed professions (and trades with similar incomes) where not everybody makes London solicitor incomes, for example engineering and teaching; and many finance jobs are not paid as much as City traders, from accountants to estate agents. For example the same source says:

«Teachers, who outside of London earn between £34,523 and £37,124 in the "upper pay ranges" according to the Department for Education, fall into the bottom third and fourth decile of households with two children, although if their partner works then they will be further up the decile ranges.»

As to the largish differences in house prices:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hpi/house-price-index/march-2015/stb-march-2015.html#tab-Average-house-prices-in-countries-and-regions

and in regional incomes (disposable here):

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc168/index.html

Pension60

FLAT RATE PENSION - SERPS OPT OUT - THE MIDDLE CLASS

SERPs opt out will cut works, private and the flat rate state pension.

The flat rate pension abolishes Pension Credit (savings).

The middle class have lost from works and / or private pensions having gone bust, taking their penson pot with them.

Penson pot freedom, sees a 55 per cent tax rate with admin charges from the penson company on top.

Deferring state pension loses it to small print.

FIGHT FOR YOUR STATE PENSION AND PENSION CREDIT (SAVINGS)
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/state-pension-at-60-now

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