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May 23, 2018

Comments

Handy Mike

Wright's piece, like a couple of his recent Blogginheads shows on the IDW, is haunted by the irony of its own tendentiousness. There are things he needs to think not true, and you can read and hear the strain in his words and voice.

This post of yours, however, is excellent.

Blissex

This post is very idealistic, and there is my usual point: material interests may matter rather more than cognitive biases as to why people make some arguments, that cognitive biases are indeed important, but self-interest (even when misperceived) bias is also quite important.

D

@blissex

As the truism says, "It's difficult to make a man understand something that his salary depends on him not understanding"

But how do you differentiate between A. people pretending not understand things B. actually not understanding them due to cognitive biases?

Blissex

«how do you differentiate between A. people pretending not understand things B. actually not understanding them due to cognitive biases?»

Depends on whether one is in a court of law or in Parliament, or not. If not, all that is needed is a call of judgement based on the context, and an acceptable error rate.

GeorgeCostanzaIrl

Re overconfidence, there is a big incentive to be that way. As Eric Hoffer wrote in the preface to the True Believer "The book passes no judgments, and expresses no preferences. It merely tries to explain; and the explanations - all of them theories - are in the nature of suggestions and arguments even when they are stated in what seems a categorical tone".

He went on to quote Montaigne:
"All I say is by way of discourse, and nothing by way of advice. I should not speak so boldly if it were my due to be believed".

It would be nice to think that much modern overconfidence is motivated by such reasoning. Nice, but naive.

derrida derider

"Lord, enlighten thou our enemies. Sharpen their wits, give acuteness to their perceptions, and consecutiveness and clearness to their reasoning powers: we are in danger from their folly, not from their wisdom."
- JS Mill "Essay on Coleridge"

It seems to me Chris is advocating we all try to be our own worst enemy, in the Millian sense. A noble aspiration, perhaps, but one doomed to fail. The dialectic with your enemies works better in the long run.

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