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July 06, 2018

Comments

john dillon

I dont think the Theresa May self negotiations fits the bill for egocentric thinking. Theresa May is cherry picking in relation to single market and Customs union. Its been repeatedly said that cherry picking is not permitted. Its not even close to being something agreeable. Dilution of CU/SM rules agreed is rightly viewed as a Threat to an already shaky EU. That plus no obvious progress on the border is a bit of a non starter. I think her more obvious tactics is running down the clock on the opposition in her own party. As soon as there is an agreement she is toast.

Dipper

I was going to comment, but after reading the post feel others may have more valid opinions.

Dipper

@ john dillon. Cherry picking is permitted - Article 8 of The Lisbon Treaty specifically allows it. Furthermore if the EU rejects this then they are in effect putting up a hard border in Ireland and breaking the GFA.

It will be interesting to see what Varadkar says about this. He is in a very difficult position (of his own making). Reject it and he is dictating policy to the UK. Accept it and he risks isolating himself from the EU.

Robert Mitchell

I think your overemphasis on trade balance is an example of egocentric framing, because you neglect capital flows which are not captured by commonly-used statistics but which outweigh mere widget trades by orders of magnitude.

john dillon

@dipper. The EU will reject it. It doesn't fit the bill for frictionless borders as well as many other issues. As if services don't need to be checked. Regarding the GFA, Its up to the UK to provide the solution but its cant due to weird internal politics of the tories. Varadkar in time will gut it but id image he will leave that to Barnier etal to kick it first. If there was anything reasonable or of merit in the 3 pager, then Boris would have resigned. I image most of europe is planning for a hard brexit at this stage.

Dipper

@john dilemma the UK has provided a solution. The GFA requires both sides to negotiate. For one side to say the other side has to adjust is not a negotiation and hence a breach of the GFA.

I'm not sure if the EU and RoI have fully understood that most people in the UK don't give a toss about the GFA and are quite happy top walk away. The GFA is being used by Continuity Remain to sabotage leaving.

john dillon

The GFA requires both sides to adhere to their commitments. Its not a negotiation. I agree though the GFA is certainly not a priority within the Tory party and not the #1 priority for the DUP. 2 years into this mess and no realistic and workable proposals nevermind detailed legal text means this is heading for the rocks.

Noah Carl

Nice post. As the great economist Thomas Schelling points out in one of his books:

"If your problem is that there is too much traffic, you are part of the problem"

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