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October 03, 2018

Comments

JWH

Question for those who know more than me: could the Windrush scandal have happened under an imagined Milliband government, and if not, why not?

Sesh

If Remainers are right, won't there be a fairly obvious comparison to be made with, eg, Germany or France in 2030, which would allow the Jim Bowen example you are thinking of?

TickyW

@Sesh.

Agreed. Britain's economic ranking in 2030 could reveal the counterfactual. The UK is now the 6th largest economy in the world. If in 2030 it ranks 12th (say) whilst that of France and Germany's more or less stays the same then it's valid to infer a Brexit effect.

Sesh

@TickyW: I very much doubt anything as drastic as that is possible: other countries currently in the top 12 below the UK include Italy, Russia, South Korea, Canada and so on. These are not only pretty significantly smaller currently, but also don't have extraordinarily large growth rates themselves (unlike the ~8-10% numbers pa for China and India)

So even if the UK had basically no growth from now until 2030, I doubt it could fall so far in the rankings. However, it could potentially fall pretty far behind France and Germany, particularly in terms of income levels. I'd imagine this might be quite visible in terms of quality of life. Particularly because comparisons with near neighbour countries can be more easily experienced directly (through travel, etc).

Jim

"Equally, even if Remainers are right and Brexit does make us worse off than we’d otherwise be, few people will experience this as a direct loss. There’ll be no Jim Bowen in 2030 inviting us to look at a more prosperous economy and telling us “here’s what you could have won.”"

The same applies if we stayed in the EU, and Brexit would have made us better off. Even more so in fact, because at least if Brexit makes us worse off we'll see the effect in comparison to other similar EU countries. But if we stayed and remained roughly in step with our neighbours we'd never know that we could have done considerably better than them by leaving.

e

@ JWH
Its fair to note the Windrush scandal groundwork was cast by NewLabour. Labour's right-wing and Tory wets share conservative underpinning – seems to embrace hostility/a willingness to scapegoat. But would any Labour government have added ruinous Conditionality regulations while at the same time restricting access to legal redress? I think not. NewLabour was neo-liberal not fascist.

Cash Advance

Much of this, though, is uncertain. What there would certainly be, though, is lots of moaning.

Martin S

“There’ll be no Jim Bowen in 2030 inviting us to look at a more prosperous economy and telling us ‘here’s what you could have won.’”

If there’s relative decline, won’t this be obvious to anyone who takes a foreign holiday? “Here’s what you could have had: France.”

Dipper

It is extremely unlikely to the point of vanishingly unlikely that Miliband could have won a majority. The nearest he could have come to winning is a minority government relying on the SNP. so the first thing that Miliband losing has delivered us is not having the UK government held hostage by Scottish nationalists.

Would have though this quite obvious, surprised that the OP and comments have not mentioned it.

Neil

2030? The UK is already looking like a dump as compared to the Netherlands.

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