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June 14, 2005


Barry Ritholtz

Not so much celebrating, as pointing out an instance where the Wisdom of Crowds, well isn't.

I disagree with your assesment of the MJ case as being all in that courtroom. An Esquire article (from 1993?) laid out why MJ was subject to these ongoing extortion schemes: A kid's dentist father, divorced from his mom and jealous of their relationship with Jackson, performed dental surgery on his own son (unusual to say the least), with a general anethesia (unusual for that particular surgery) and used contraindicsted drugs with a known tendency to create heightened states of suggestibility.

That article colored my belief that Jackson (freakish tho he may be) was again being extorted by grifters with a history of litigiousness.

And what of Purcell leaving Morgan Stanley? Tons of external factors (i.e., outside a single courtroom) --

A 5% expectation that he would resing by June 30th -- that was even worse than the MJ contract!



Surowiecki mentions exactly those two conditions, diversity and completeness of information and diversity of participants' expertise, but he also mentions that the data submitted by particpants must be suitable for aggregation, rather than one person "winning" outright. Doesn't apply here necessarily (especially as we've seen that the first two are not satisified) , I'm just saying that's his third requirement.

Chris. F. Masse

Hello Chris Dillow,

I like this spot-on comment. I have indexed it in the link below.

And thanks for the deserved link to professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams' presentation.

By the way, he has posted a HTML format of his latest paper:


Chris. F. Masse

Chris. F. Masse

Hello there,

I have come up with a long piece about Barry Ritholtz's 2004 political predictions versus the 2004 US presidential futures markets' predictions. (I made a link to this particular blog entry, by the way.)

How the 2004 U.S. political prediction markets outsmarted a Wall Street pundit, an esteemed economics professor and the commentariat as a whole!

Barry will respond to me on his blog on Monday evening.

Best regards,

Chris. F. Masse

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