The MSM tells us that UK manufacturing output rose a better-than-expected 0.7% in March.
True, this is what the headline official figures show. But in fact, output grew much more than this - by 16.9%.
The differerence is that the headlines refer to the numbers after seasonal adjustment, whereas I'm referring to the raw figures. In truth, output always rises a lot in March, just as it always falls from November to January. Indeed, before seasonal adjustment, output fell by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, whereas the adjusted figures show a rise of 0.7%.
Though they don't get attention, the unadjusted figures are important. They show that the macroeconomy is more volatile than you'd guess from the headlines or from Brown's talk of locking in stability.
And this volatility has real effects. As I've said, it might explain why shares do well in winter.
* For the patient, the figures are code AGVV available here.
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