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May 15, 2006

Comments

Marcin Tustin

The reason why experts must be involved is because where the rights of the citizen are being determined, they must be able to put their case, and the burden of proving a need to extrac a penalty must be put on the state. This rule stands quite apart from the Human Rights Act as a part of the common law.

Jack

But who writes the rules?

chris

Jack - the rules I have in mind are NOT externally imposed. Rather, they should emerge from within the practice by research and statistical analysis. In investing, this means "sell in May" and "be a passive investor" (unless you differ from the average person). In cricket, it might mean "never play the reverse sweep" (ditto caveat).
The point is to get away from relying upon judgment.

Paul Evans

It's an interesting point Chris, but doesn't this run counter to your general dread of managerialism?

This seems a prescription for management by risk-aversion only.

I'd suggest that fallible decision-makers are preferable to the alternatives. A democracy is, surely, preferable to a technocracy? Would you prefer to be tried by a judge and jury or by a panel of criminologists?

Would you prefer past performance to be the sole determinant of future performance in every part of the economy.

The thing is, sometimes people are released from prison, the wrong call is made and someone suffers the consequences. I'd prefer to live somewhere in which this happens, than in a society where all risk is ameliorated.

Wouldn't you?

Peter

One problem is you can only invest up to £7,000 per annum tax-free. If you withdraw all your investments every May, you can only ever have £7,000 invested each year.

Peter

One problem is you can only invest up to £7,000 per annum tax-free. If you withdraw all your investments every May, you can only ever have £7,000 invested tax-free.

atkins

This sounds like the Wisdom of Crowds thesis.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

The Pedant-General

And in the case of markets is self-defeating: it ONLY works because people DON'T, on average, follow your rule.

If they did, the rule wouldn't exist following the first panic selling crash in May.

Equally, you have made your cash this year by bucking the trend, by doing that which the average person current does NOT. In most walks of life, this is a risky strategy.

PG

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