Islam, cricket and rationality: a dialogue

From the Sunday Times:

Before converting from Christianity to Islam last year [Mohammed Yousuf] averaged 48 in Test cricket; since he converted (and changed his name from Yousuf Youhana) he has scored more than 1,000 runs at 93.

Yousuf: This is proof of Allah's existence and greatness. He's made me a better cricketer.
Rationalist: Pish. If Allah cares so much about Pakistani cricket, why hasn't he taught your team-mates how to catch a ball?
Yousuf: You miss the point. Allah doesn't care especially about cricket. He cares about rewarding converts. And just look at the figures - he's rewarded this convert.
Rationalist: Come off it. Everyone knows a good batsman can average 93 over a short interval. It's just luck and form. Nothing to do with Allah.
Yousuf: You misdescribe the position. Sure, there's a good chance that a batsman with a career average of 48 will average 93 over short periods. But the chance of him doing so immediately after converting to Islam is much lower. So low that it's unlikely to be coincidence.
Rationalist: But coincidences happen sometimes. It's not as if your Allah has a magic wand to convert good players into great ones.
Yousuf: There's no magic involved. It's basic common sense. Since finding Allah, I've become more disciplined and contented in my life. And a disciplined and contented man makes a better sportsman. If you doubt me, just look at Zinedine Zidane. That's what happens when a man loses the religion of his forefathers.
Rationalist: Have you never read David Hume? He said:

No testimony is sufficient to establish a miracle, unless the testimony be of such a kind, that its falsehood would be more miraculous, than the fact, which it endeavours to establish.

Surely, it's more likely that you're just going through a run of good form than that Allah exists. So we shouldn't infer from your batting that Islam is the correct religion.
Yousuf: The ignorance here is not mine, but Hume's. He was unaware of his contemporary, Thomas Bayes. In a Bayesian framework, my belief in Islam is strengthened by my good form. This corroborates my Bayesian prior that Allah is benign and great.
Rationalist: Maybe. But it doesn't shake my prior that Islam is just gibberish.
Yousuf: That tells us about your prior, not about the evidence. By all means, continue in your infidel ways. Just don't pretend that rationality and evidence is all on your side.

Comments

[dearieme]

The acid test would be Colin Montgomery. Or Tim Henman.
P.S. What's Allah got against the poor Muslim lad that thingy is keeping out of the Pakistan XI? That's a rotten reward for being a Muslim all your life. Do Muslims believe 'Better a sinner that repenteth....'? Somehow I doubt it.

[Shuggy]

Heh - very good. But I'm assuming you'd agree that some a priori positions have a greater rational support than others? Dunno about you; I'm agnostic myself. But I tend to lean towards atheism when people insist on involving the Almighty in their silly sporting events.

[chris]

Oh, sure - I'm an atheist, in that I see no good arguments for the existence of God. But I wouldn't stand a chance of rationally convincing a theist of this position - especially if he can show (as Mohammed Yousef can) that religion is helping him thrive in important ways.
Rationality is a very weak tool - something the "muscular liberals" often forget.

[vic]

bloody bitch isslam
ask allah to get world cup to pakistan
lets c

[viagra online]

This is something I didn't know I'm really surprised for the amount of people who have been converted I never imagined it could be possible.