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September 07, 2006

Comments

AJE

And how would such a contract affect incentives?

Lets say that prosperity is determined by some combination of hard work and endowments.

If the former, there's no need for a contract - life isn't a lottery, therefore the analogy breaks down.

If the latter, redistributive taxation will reduce the incentives for rich people to educate and invest in their children. Hence the pie has shrunk, and we're all worse off.

FA Hayek:

"we should regard as the most desirable order of society one which we would choose if we knew that our initial position in it would be decided purely by chance"

http://thefilter.blogs.com/thefilter/2004/05/tales_from_bath.html

chris

AJE - 3 points.
1. It's unclear that prosperity is determined by hard work and endowments. Standard errors in even the best Mincer equations are big, implying that there's a big unexplained element in income equality. Could this be luck?
2. Mea culpa. Incentives should be considered, of course. But it's an openish empirical question as to how much disincentive effect taxes have. And how important is it to increase the size of the pie anyway?
3. Thanks for reminding us: Hayek was not opposed to income support: check out pages 54-55 of vol III of Law Legislation and Liberty or chapter 20 of the Constitution of Liberty.

Sam

Mr. Star Hand's brand of utopian insanity isn't woth commenting on. Let's look at Chris's examples instead:

1. Our kidnapped gamblers probably would agree to pool their risk, to produce an outcome where each gambler expects to lose a smallish amount of money to the house. This rather assumes that the individual gamblers are obliged to follow an optimum strategy for minimising their loss. Assuming Mr. Mafia hasn't kidnapped a bunch of card counters, this probably means that as a condition of the insurance, the kidnappees should be obliged to make small bets on either red or black at the roulette table. Our rational insurance pool would agree to cover any losses obtaained by playing in this fashion.

On grounds of liberty, individual gamblers would be free to risk their own money as they preferred, but there is no sensible argument for requiring the group to cover the losses of someone who chose to play blackjack like a moron, say.

If we carry this argument over into your pre-birth waiting room insurance syndicate, we would tend to agree to insure ourselves against the risk of being born in a poor country, with low abilities and so on, but would tend not to agree to insure ourselves against poor outcomes caused by willful stupidity, laziness or inappropriate risk-taking.

It is also, in practice, impossible to insure ourselves against the "risk" of being born in the Stone Age, as there is no sensible way of transferring funds between different periods of time. It is certainly the case that poor Americans are enormously better off than anybody at all a few hundred years ago, but apart from patting ourselves on the back and pointing out how useful technological advance is, that comparison is completely pointless. The only wealth redistribution that is possible is amongst contemporaries, so that is what we must consider. Of course, the rate of technological advance, and so the overall welfare of people as a function of time, is not unconnected with the size of the pie that you refer to in your comment.

You also discuss redistributive transfers to poor Africans, claiming that rational people would have bought insurance against being born African. The catch here is that most of Africa's problems are caused by Africans. Endemic corruption, an absence of the rule of law, weak or no protection for property rights - all these things are caused by the behaviour of Africans, and are a large part of the reason that Africa is in such a state. Africans are, at least collectively, acting like the kidnapped gambler who loses large sums of money whilst playing blackjack or poker like an idiot, and then hopes to have his losses shared by his neighbours who have spent their time betting $5 on red at roulette.

james higham

...But others should be compelled to be honorable enough to recognize their good fortune, and pay out...

I was wondering when the compulsion was going to raise its head. Also, the Africans, as Sam says, caused a lot of this themselves.

Sam

Imagine rational people are in an ante-room waiting to be born into the world. They don't know the skills or luck they'll have in this world, or the economy they'll be born into - it could be modern-day USA, Africa, medieval Europe, a future society, whatever.
Wouldn't this group act like our kidnappees, and agree some insurance, with the well-favoured paying the less favoured?

In this context, "well-favoured" must include the natural resources available to the country that you happen to be born in. You can argue about how much of the success of the West is due to the behaviour of its people and how much is some kind of luck, but you surely can't argue that, for example, the size and quality of oil deposits available to a country is anything but chance.

Europe and the US are certainly favoured over some other parts of the world by having a climate well-suited to agriculture and work, but I'll wish you luck persuading the Iranians, Saudis and the like that they should be redistributing their rather fortuitous oil wealth in our direction.

TallDave

Imagine a Mafia boss kidnaps a group of people and forces them to gamble their own money in his casino. Before they start gambling, they get to talk amongst themselves.

This is the same tired trope we constantly see from coercive utopianist redistributionists: capitalism is gambling, and the successful are merely lucky. You just have to face the fact that capitalism is a competition for markets which results in efficiencies because those who best serve markets are rewarded.

The other major flaw in your analogy is that the people start out with money.

Here's a more accurate analogy: imagine your Mafia boss instead tells them they have to work, and whoever works hardest gets the most money, while those who don't work get nothing. Think they'll agree to your levelling insurance now?

sam

Market failure is a concept that no longer hunts in economics. Let's keep looking for an excuse to push foolishness and call it economics.

sam w

last lost is from sam w not sam

james higham

Too many Sams.

...You just have to face the fact that capitalism is a competition for markets which results in efficiencies because those who best serve markets are rewarded...

Sorry but this is true. Free markets are, by definition, inequitable and the free soon drops out and begins the dictatorship by the monopolists and the employees are the slaves.

The utopia of the free market where everyone's happily trading is a myth. If it were not so, then why would America expend so much energy on anti-trust legislation?

ekmi

"imagine your Mafia boss instead tells them they have to work, and whoever works hardest gets the most money, while those who don't work get nothing."

TallDave: Is capitalism like that? I don't think advertising executives work harder than coal miners, but they're rewarded far more generously.

More generally, I don't see the difference between having poor abilities (ie being stupid) and being lazy. No-one chooses the kind of person they are, so all of a person's capacities seem equally random. What would be wrong in the thought experiment with insuring yourself against becoming someone lazy?

Sam

Here's a more accurate analogy: imagine your Mafia boss instead tells them they have to work, and whoever works hardest gets the most money, while those who don't work get nothing. Think they'll agree to your levelling insurance now?

The whole point of this discussion is that that isn't an accurate analogy. Everybody (I think) agrees that working hard tends on average to lead to economic success, whereas sitting on your arse does not. The point is that some of the other factors that affect economic success are basically random (intrinsic ability, opportunities available in country of birth, possibly wealth of parents and quality of parenting if you want to treat each person asa strict indvidual).

Whilst it is not reasonable (at least to me) to redistribute the earnings of the industrious to the workshy, it seems that when we consider whether those who were favoured by a cast of the genetic dice should subsidise those that weren't, there's at least a case to answer.

Sam

ekmi: "More generally, I don't see the difference between having poor abilities (ie being stupid) and being lazy. No-one chooses the kind of person they are, so all of a person's capacities seem equally random."

No-one chooses the kind of person they are? What, not at all? You never make any conscious decisions? Nothing that you do in your life affects the way that you behave in later life? I think you're somewhat unusual if that is the case.

There are at least two aspects to the industrious/lazy spectrum. The first is that different people place different values on material possessions and their time. One person might decide that it's more important to work long hours so as to be able to buy nice stuff, whereas another might decide that he prefers to spend more time with his family, playing sport or even slobbing out on the sofa watching TV. That's OK - people are free to place whatever value they like on their time. What isn't OK is if you come along, confiscate the hard worker's money and give it to the man who prefers leisure. That would be, in effect, telling our worker that he had made the wrong choice, that he should be required to have a better work/life balance and so you're going to confiscate his income as punishment.

The second aspect is that some people are, certainly, lazy. They decide intellectually that it would be better for them to work harder, but when it comes down to it, they procrastinate, get distracted by the TV, a book or some friends, or just decide that they can't be bothered to get up. In my experience, this is learned behaviour. Laziness is, more than anything else, a habit.

ekmi

Sam: People certainly make conscious choices affecting their future personality, but those choices are themselves a function of (1) their current personality and (2) the world. I make the choices that I do because I'm the kind of person who would make those choices. That means that over the scope of a life all that matters is the person's initial state and interactions with the world. So I think it's reasonable to say that people don't choose the kind of person that they are.

Anyway, that's my argument. I actually find it intuitively quite unappealing, so if you have any objections I'd be interested.

Sam

ekmi:

I think your argument might have some validity if people were nothing more than a neural net trained on their life experiences and outcomes.

I think people are both more and less than that. More, because people have consciousness, the ability to reason and the power to acively seek out new data rather than passively categorising input, and less because you know that your neural net is acting rationally given its training sample, whereas you have no such guarantee for a person.

Let's consider, for example, a burglar. Suppose that at some point in his life, he saw an open purse full of cash, and helped himself to some money. Emboldened by the success of his theft, he progresses to breaking in to houses and walking off with the valuables. After a profitable spree of criminality, he gets caught flogging a dodgy DVD player to a man in a pub.

How should we deal with our burglar? Do we decide that he chose to commit acts of criminality, and so deserves the allotted punishment, or do we decide that he's not to blame - he didn't decide to be a criminal, it's all the fault of his upbringing and the fact that his early misdemeanours weren't caught and corrected?

If I accept your thesis that "over the scope of a life all that matters is the person's initial state and interactions with the world. So I think it's reasonable to say that people don't choose the kind of person that they are." then I must apply to every choice that I make. Every single decision that I make - whether to get an education or to goof off, whether to work hard or prefer leisure, whether to be honest or dishonest, whether to have a biscuit with my morning coffee - is equally a function of my initial conditions and experiences.

Now let's consider how the rest of the world should react to me. Remember that I am the sum of my experiences, and that my experiences include the experiences of those around me and of my friends and family, passed through the filter of their individual personalities. We're back to incentives again. My laziness may well be merely an effect of the sum of my experiences, and nothing that I can be blamed for. We can also agree, in abstract, that without considering blame, it is better if people are industrious than if they are lazy. Here's the trick: if my laziness is merely the result of the rational reasoning machine in my head determining the optimum course of action based on its experiences, we surely want to suggest to that reasoning machine that laziness is less optimal than industry.

So I think my conclusion is that it doesn't matter whether the choices that I make are ones that I choose to make, or ones that are a function of my past history - we should act as though they are free choices that I can be blamed or praised for, both to alter my future decisions and pour encourager les autres.

Rob

What no-one seems to have realised here is that - which Dworkin's insurance market substanially turns on - is that the value of talents is not fixed, but rather depends on what other people want and do. It is, for example, totally useless being a talented footballer in a society which doesn't care about football. Part of Dworkin's argument is that you ought to be able to insure against precisely that kind of possibility. In terms of claims about people being able to put their own value on their free time, the point is that they don't: other people effectively dictate its value on it by offering them money to do things other than sit around, and they are not really in control of that.

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n005

"The fact that we would have agreed to something in an impossible hypothetical situation does not oblige us to act as if we had agreed. A hypothetical contract is no contract at all.
It's true to claim this. But it's ignoble. Someone who argues this is like a winning gambler in our kidnap story. He wants to keep money he won through his good fortune to profit in circumstances that weren't of his choosing. I find this sneaky and dishonorable - though whether this is sufficient to ground a case for forcing the rich to pay is another question."


Ignoble?

Only if it's ignoble to use truth to assert one's own innocence in response to some random stranger, who doesn't even know you, calling you "ignoble." Also, it does not logically follow that only the winning gamblers would argue this. Any of the gamblers, be he a "winner" or a "loser," might reasonably say that the most integritous--indeed, the most noble-- thing to do would be to just ride things out, and not make an already unbearable situation worse with cake cutting games, which will, in all likelyhood, lead to infantile bickering, and worse, guilt. Now, consider something else: if someone is kidnapping you, and forcing you to "gamble" in a casino he owns, what's really going on? Here's a hint: certainly not gambling. Someone who holds you hostage is not playing a game with you, he is robbing you. There is nothing for you to win, and no way for you to win; only cheaters win cheaters' games. The expected outcome is total loss for everyone, and no one coming away with anything, much less anything to pay to one another as "insurance." "But what if someone did win?" you might ask? Here's what: maybe if you ask him nicely, even after the fact, he'll help you out. Just on the spur of the moment. No painful deliberation, no tricky economics, no one mouthing at each other with fancy words like "ignoble" and "dishonorable" (let alone puerile, naked weasel words like "sneaky"), but just a spontaneous act of kindness, to ease the pain and regret of a tragic situation--perhaps for himself as much as for you.

There is no such thing as the original position in the real world. There never was. There never will be. There is no cause for there ever to be. But most importantly of all, no sane person would even enjoy the opportunity. So, let me propose a much less abstract, more realistic and relevant case. Imagine that a rational person wakes up one morning, and having accomplished that, is faced with the choice of how better to spend what time one has in a day. Would he not agree (if only with himself) to spend it doing happy, creative things? Would he not be content with the self-assurance that if only he can better himself, even if only by the worth of half a penny a day, then his life will not be in vain?

Or would he rather choose to spend his precious days keeping close tabs on anyone who is better off, being nagged with guilt over the many and nameless who may be less well off, and looking to paint big, red, "ignoble" circles and slashes over people's pure, innocent good fortune?

Sorry, but I'll take good fortune any day, and others may have theirs with no objection from me, because the truth is, not only is good fortune hard to come by, but I just don't think that anyone in this world, not even a single person, would even have any life to enjoy at all, but by massive good fortune.

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