Stumbling and Mumbling: Less divorce: a good thing?

August 30, 2007

Less divorce: a good thing?

Today's figures show that the divorce rate has fallen to a 22-year low.
Is this good news? Superficially, it seems so. Divorce makes people unhappy, even if they were in a miserable marriage beforehand. And children from intact families grow up to be happier (pdf) and better educated than those from broken homes - a tendency that might not be much ameliorated by policy intervention.
So, less D.I.V.O.R.C.E is to be welcomed?
Not necessarily.
One reason why divorce rates are falling might be that marriage rates are falling.
Obviously, fewer marriages mean fewer divorces. But they might also mean a lower divorce rate. This is because when everyone gets married, there'll be lots of bad marriages. But if there are fewer marriages, only those who are reasonably sure that they've found "the one" will get married. So, fewer marriages mean better marriages. A lower divorce rate is therefore a product of a selection bias.
In this way, far from being something to be welcomed, a lower divorce rate might instead be a sign of declining social capital.

August 30, 2007 in Families | Permalink

Comments

This sits very well with a post I just read at Katy's about a couple breaking off their engagement just before the wedding.
http://everythingiselectric.blogspot.com/2007/08/sometimes-you-have-to-accept-that.html

I'm not sure I understand the leap between decline of marriage and declining social capital. If less people are taking on poor marriages, and if there are other alternatives to marriage for them that make them happier, then surely that's a good thing?

Or am I misunderstanding 'social capital'. just because people are not choosing traditionally sanctioned partnerships, that doesn't mean that they aren't building relationships.

I wonder whether changing 'civil partnerships' to 'marriage' for homosexuals would affect the divorce rate?

Posted by: Robert | August 31, 2007 at 03:41 AM