Autumn, SAD and elections

Why are autumn general elections often a bad idea? Why does the stock market often do better in winter than summer? Why does Samhain - a day of marking ghosts and witches - fall in autumn whilst Mayday - a celebration of fertility and sexuality - falls in the spring?
These questions are related.
First, the facts. Since 1966, the All-share has returned an average of just 0.3% a month in the May-October months, compared to 2.2% a month in November-April. And of the four general elections since 1945 to have occurred in the autumn, two saw changes of government (1951, albeit with an increase in the Labour vote, and 1964) and one saw a fall in the government vote (1959).
I reckon there's a link here. It's to do with seasonal affective disorder.
In spring, the nights get shorter and the days lighter. That cheers us up, and improves our sex drive - which is why Pagans celebrated fertility on May Day. It also helps drive up share prices, to levels from such subsequent returns - in the summer - are likely to be poor.
By contrast, in autumn the shorter days make us depressed, anxious and - as the Pagans knew - aware of death. That drives share prices down, to levels from which subsequent returns - those in the winter - are good.
All this helps explain why autumn general elections are risky for governments. As longer nights make us feel bad, we might - at the margin - be less inclined to celebrate the government's achievements.
There might, however,  be an offsetting mechanism. As we are more anxious in the autumn, we might feel more inclined to support the party that offers security and low risk. Maybe those Labour supporters wanting an autumn election hope this mechanism dominates.

Comments

[Bruce]

Autumn elections are risky for Labour governments in particular as Labour is traditionally not as good at getting its less committed supporters out to vote as the Tories. And those darkening nights aren't going to help.