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October 29, 2007


Mark Wadsworth

How likely is a slump in the UK housing market?

It's more or less 99% certain, according to the eighteen-year-cycle theory.


Noise flash: Nationwide said today that UK house prices rose at their fastest rate in four months during October - by 1.1% from the previous month.


As long as people can manage their interest costs and demand remains strong then prices cannot fall. Of course this assumes banks still have the ability to lend at their leisure on valuations supplied.

As Mark notes it is likely we are into the end phase of the 18 year cycle which started in 1992. The recent credit crunch was the early warning system.

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