Knowing, believing and doing

The drawback of moving house, as I'm planning to do, is of course that it's just so much hassle - finding a buyer, clearing out the house, dealing with lawyers and estate agents and so on.
When confronted with this prospect, my reaction is the standard one - to think just how happy I'll be when I move to Oakham.
But here's something that puzzles me. I know I'm almost certainly exaggerating the uplift in my happiness. I know people have a projection bias (pdf) which causes them to under-estimate the extent to which they'll adapt to their new environment. And I know there's a focusing (pdf)  illusion; we exaggerate the importance to our well-being of any particular thing that our mind settles upon, such as moving from London to Oakham.
The psychological literature, then, suggests I'll have a brief period of happiness once I've gotten to Oakham, but that I'll adapt and end up little happier.
But despite this, I'm really looking forward to moving. What I know doesn't much influence what I believe. Intellectual knowledge is superficial; it doesn't penetrate my soul.
What's more, I know why it doesn't do so. I know that we all have a tendency to underweight academic evidence precisely because knowledge of average tendencies is not as vivid and salient as mere anecdote; dead tree writers earn the contempt of everyone by regularly making this error.
So, yes, I know I'm being irrational here. But I'm making a life-changing move anyway.
This isn't navel-gazing. It raises two questions.
First, might there be an evolutionary reason (or at least functional explanation (pdf)) for us to under-estimate our adaptation to our surroundings? If everyone had thought "there's little point doing anything; we'll only get used to our better surroundings", mankind would have made little progress since the stone age. 
Secondly, doesn't this show that rationality - in the sense of acting in accordance with the evidence - is an impossibly demanding ideal?

Comments

[james c]

Who knows whether a move from Belsize Park to Oakham will make you happier?

I imagine the pubs are better in Oakham:no North London types. Your social standing will be higher, too, and you might even become a minor celebrity.

I don't know about the beer-but chacun a son gout as they say.

[Peter Briffa]

And the chicks go like trains, I believe.

[Luis Enrique]

Would it really be rational to 'act in accordance with the evidence' in the way that you suggest?

I live in a wonky house so my bed was on a slope. This pissed me off, but I adapted. Then I put wedges under two of the legs, and enjoyed a few short nights of happy horizontal slumber. Then I adjusted and am, sadly, no happier than before. But I wouldn't remove the wedges, and would you really say it would have been rational never to have put them there?

I'm sure living in London must be getting you down in some small way, so moving to Oakham is probably a good idea. Who cares if the effect will eventually fade in to the background. In ten year's time if I ask you if you're happy in Oakham, or whether you want to move back to London, don't you expect to answer you're happier in Oakham? Hence moving there is a rational decision isn't it, regardless of your projecting and focusing.

[chris]

Luis - I might reply in a few years that I'm happier in Okham, but that might just be the endowment effect (or hindsight bias): I'll think I made the right decision because I feel that I own the decision.
Peter - do you have any - ahem - hard evidence on this?

[william]

Chris, it's just the discount rate. Events and feelings far in the future are weighted less than events/feelings tomorrow. Thus the soon-to-be experienced joy of the move to Oakham received more weight that the later adaptation.

[Luis Enrique]

cripes, biases / heuristics have just arrived at the BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7238637.stm

if this catches on, everyone will go mad.

[James Hamilton]

Well, the pubs rate highly on Beer In The Evening, so it sounds like a good move on that front. But it does rather mess up the ChipOx Club, which I've enjoyed describing as coming from Henley, Hove and Belsize Park. Oakham doesn't have quite the same ring to it, somehow..
Hope you have more luck with the housemove than I had with mine, in any case.

[Bob B]

I see from media reports about the recent Audit Commission's annual assessment of local authorities in England that Rutland's council, like Liverpool's council, was only awarded one star:
http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/article/?id=1449801

How come?

[jameshigham]

The psychological literature, then, suggests I'll have a brief period of happiness once I've gotten to Oakham, but that I'll adapt and end up little happier.

If you don't fill your head with such guff or try to explain everything in economic terms plus things are good at home - only happiness is assured.

[dearieme]

I suspect that you are moving in hopes that eventually there will be little Dilli, whom you can send to the good school there on the grounds that it's local.

[Jackart]

I agree with James C: Can I Recommend the Wheatsheaf? A fine pub... (though always out of bounds when I was at school - teacher's pub, you see).

[RealBusiness]

Well, i guess you will see what will happen when you finally move to Oakham. Don't worry, be happy :)

[Bruce]

To travel hopefully...

[Bob B]

Dare we look forward to a relaunch of Rutland Weekend Television?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/rutlandweekendtelevision/

[chris strange]

What no puns on picking Oakum?

[Bob B]

I can especially recommend this Rutland Weekend Television documentary: Being Normal:
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-152568105050340465

[Gina McCulloch]

Why so tired of life, Chrissy?

Oh well, I suppose Oakham's Razor is the easy way out...

[language cop]

"Gotten"? Is this Oakham of which you write in the USA, requiring you to give up use of the past participle "got"?

[Chris Williams]

Oakham? Rutland's the worst local authority in the country, as well as perhaps the least necessary, so when it comes to public services, things are more likely to get better than get worse, thus helping the happiness index somewhat.

But . . . Oakham?