Might migrant workers help Gordon Brown out of his predicament?
My thinking - as usual - is simple. Migrant workers have accounted for a disproportionate proportion - over half (pdf) - of the rise in employment since 1997. They have been the swing producer. And as the economy cools and jobs are destroyed, it's these jobs that'll go. This is partly because newly-created jobs tend to be more unstable and prone to destruction than older ones, and partly because migrants have filled jobs in cyclical sectors that are most vulnerable to a downturn; the Polish builder is a stereotype for a reason.
So, the coming downturn could look different from its predecessors. It'll take the form not so much of voters (and their friends and neighbours) losing their jobs - though this'll happen to some extent - but of Poles going home.
Voters might therefore be pleasantly surprised by how mildly the downturn hits them. And it's a common tendency for people to react more strongly to surprises, good or bad, than to anticipated events.
So, in the 2010 election, Brown might be able to say something like:
My thinking - as usual - is simple. Migrant workers have accounted for a disproportionate proportion - over half (pdf) - of the rise in employment since 1997. They have been the swing producer. And as the economy cools and jobs are destroyed, it's these jobs that'll go. This is partly because newly-created jobs tend to be more unstable and prone to destruction than older ones, and partly because migrants have filled jobs in cyclical sectors that are most vulnerable to a downturn; the Polish builder is a stereotype for a reason.
So, the coming downturn could look different from its predecessors. It'll take the form not so much of voters (and their friends and neighbours) losing their jobs - though this'll happen to some extent - but of Poles going home.
Voters might therefore be pleasantly surprised by how mildly the downturn hits them. And it's a common tendency for people to react more strongly to surprises, good or bad, than to anticipated events.
So, in the 2010 election, Brown might be able to say something like:
The economy has weathered the storms of the last two years far better than our critics claimed. Not only has inflation fallen sharply, but unemployment is still half a million lower than when we took office in 1997. This shows that we are the party of stability and sound economic management.
yeah, but no one will believe him
Posted by: kinglear | May 23, 2008 at 02:54 PM
"It'll take the form not so much of voters (and their friends and neighbours) losing their jobs - though this'll happen to some extent - but of Poles going home."
Or accepting lower wages? Either way, the pain will be felt by those unlikely to vote.
Posted by: ad | May 23, 2008 at 06:34 PM
You could also argue that if this was true, which i dont think it is, folks might consider it a good time for a safe change of suits in the provinsion London government.
either way its get your coat time.
Posted by: sm | May 23, 2008 at 08:53 PM
Going home, or bludging off the Welfare State?
Posted by: dearieme | May 23, 2008 at 11:09 PM
Kinglear has it.
The significance of the current crunch is that it shows us the true face of the Brown administration in all its glorious stumbling uncomprehending incompetence.
There is no way back. The long process of restoring labour to a party fit for government starts now, and will inevitably involve a long spell in opposition.
Posted by: Dipper | May 24, 2008 at 07:28 PM
All very interesting. But how about this?
Our company www.teambuildingsouthern.co.uk was hired in january to carry out a murder mystery event for Hilton Hotels in Poland.
No the plumber didn't do it!.
Richard
Posted by: richard hazelgrove | May 25, 2008 at 06:23 PM