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June 05, 2009


Tom Freeman

And the other thing about the Halifax and Nationwide indices is that they miss out repossessed properties that are sold at auction without mortgages. These prices are lower than conventionally sold ones, and the number of repos will rise as unemployment does.

Sam Langfield

Your excellent point on the failings of hedonic regressions is supported by anecdotal evidence on the ultra high-end of the housing market, where buyer liquidity is freer and posh estate agencies therefore more upbeat. Set against this is the dismal data on new mortgage approvals (less important for the uber rich) which you cite.


consistent prices rises from hereon would be bubbly

Exactly. I'm not making out any expertise but I did write just before the banking bubble burst that there would be a false comeback, a false dawn before the big crash.

It's time to make one's plans now.


In the same way that the Great Crash had several upturns, this housing market will have them too - but to no better effect. The US is well over a year ahead of us and they "may" be seeing more stability or " lesser " falls, but they are still seeing a downward trend which is yet to flatten

Gas Analyzer

There is no bubble now. We may drop up to another 30%, but at that time there will be real bargains that we have not seen in the last 40 years. Buy, Buy!

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