EU and non-EU immigration

In last night’s debate, Nick Clegg asked David Cameron:

Can you now tell me - am I right or wrong that 80% of people who come here come from the European Union, and your cap would make no difference to that? Is that right?

No, Nick, it’s not. According to the International Passenger Survey, 431,000 non-British immigrants came to the UK in the 12 months to June 2009, the latest period for which we have figures. 166,000 of these came from the EU. That’s 38.5%. In the previous 12 months, EU immigrants were 177,000 of 454,000. And in the year before that, 174,000 of 473,000.
Alternatively, we could look at the nationality of people employed here. Table 8 of this pdf shows that, in Q4, there were 2.288 million non-UK nationals working in the UK, of which just over one million came from the EU.
Strictly speaking, it seems Clegg’s wrong, by a factor of around two.
There is, however, some force behind his general sentiment.
Let’s say that we could impose a binding cap upon non-EU immigration, so that an employer who would like to hire a non-EU worker can‘t. What does he do? If he hires a British national, then immigration does indeed fall one-for-one with the cap, and employment of native workers rises one-for-one; this assumes that, at the margin, a British worker is as productive as a non-EU one.
But if he hires an EU national instead, aggregate immigration won’t change. There’ll just be more EU immigrants and fewer non-EU ones: we’ll have more Greeks and fewer Turks, more Poles and fewer Russians. It’s not clear what is gained by this, from the perspective of someone worried about “flocking east Europeans.“
So, which is it? There’s one piece of evidence here. This paper finds that new immigrants are a closer substitute for earlier immigrants than they are for native workers; for this reason, immigration reduces the wages of earlier immigrants relative to migrants. This suggests that a cap on non-EU immigration might indeed lead to increased EU migration more than to increased native employment.
Which leads me to a question. Let’s say we get a Tory government that imposes a cap on non-EU immigration. Immigration then rises from the EU, with the result that overall immigration stays high. What happens then?
Ideally, people would realize that we can’t control immigration, and so shouldn’t try. But there might instead be another reaction. Some will say, as UKIP does: “we can only control immigration by leaving the EU.“ Pressure to do so will therefore increase.  So, is Cameron’s cap on non-EU migration a stepping stone towards leaving the EU? 

Comments

[EU]

Bon Voyage to David!

I strongly support Clegg's argument about the EU referendum and all the EU hypocrisy that goes on in UK politics.

The EU is a package - there's the good and bad. If the UK politicians really believe it and have the gut - why not field a referendum on leaving it. I think there would be popular support so this may just about happen (Then Scotland will probably leave the UK to join the EU, but that's a different story).

The thing is there is all the bashing of the euro, immigration and crooked bananas, but if you look realistically, both politically and economically the UK will be set back 15 years if it does leave. EU will suffer too, but not that much.

[Paul Sagar]

Great minds think alike, I've just put up a similar piece...

[Grumpy Optimist - Andrew Richardson]

The answer to your question is - we can but hope.
The referendum that Clegg is suggesting is a trick. It should have three questions not two.
1) In and greater union
2) In but a repatriation of powers to the UK
3) Out?

No 2) would win by a country mile and Clegg would hate that. By comparison an in/out referendum would be a lot closer and if the answer was in, it would not mean (as Clegg would interpret it) as a green light for greater integration.
The truth is that Clegg has gone native on Europe and cannot even understand how most of us feel about it.

[David Weber]

I would suspect that, despite enlargement, immigration from the EU would be less noticeable than immigration from outside it -- IE people from Europe are more often to look more like us, and have similar customs to us, than from outside Europe. However, a cap on non-EU immigrants indeed wouldn't dismiss the concerns of someone who was worried about eastern European immigration.

[Tom]

The ONS have said today that 7 out of 8 immigrants are from within the EU, apparently. I'm not sure where the difference comes from - people being granted settlement versus simply here short-term, perhaps?

[Alex]

Mark Easton:

"In trying to explain his error, Mr Clegg's office has since said that the 80% comes from an article in the Economist, which is hardly the kind of official source one might have hoped for but is a start.

The article says this: "Workers from outside the EU make up just one-fifth of all immigrants when students (who pay valuable tuition fees) are excluded."

So the Lib Dems are focusing on workers and excluding students. Given that the Conservative cap on immigration only applies to non-EU workers, this might seem reasonable, albeit that the way Mr Clegg expressed himself was misleading."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markeaston/2010/04/immigration_by_numbers.html

[chris c]

The IPS is a poor measure - it's 0.2% of passengers entering and leaving. There's an inherent sample bias in that you don't have to answer questions, prove who you are or accurately report the motives.

In addition, the Sun - who apparently are the primary source of "Clegg's lies" - are reporting statistics from inflow, not the balance of both.

[Francine Gomez]

the government sometimes are giving too much deal on immigration..i mean, come one, these people are just trying to live a comfortable life...and they're not even asking any amount from anyone's pocket

[jameshigham]

24dash.com says as a member of the European Union, the UK cannot regulate the number of people from the European Economic Area (EEA) entering the country. Most EEA nationals also have the automatic right to work in the UK.

That is the bottom line. Also, there are now many schools where English is now not the first language of the majority of students.

The old chestnut about us all being immigrants because someone in the year 665 AD emigrated to Britain, does not give a mandate to allow immigrants open slather today.

Also this:

British Babel: English is now a foreign language for one in seven …
18 Mar 2009 … One in seven primary school pupils does not speak English as a first language. The number who normally speak a foreign language rose last …
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/…/British-Babel-English-foreign-language-seven-primary-school-pupils.html

[RH]

Why this obsession with immigration? Why not devote the same degree of concentration on other issues such as safeguarding the NHS, state of schoold and education, transport, and so on?

[Keith]

Much respect for trying to discuss immigration in a rational way chris.

But we all know people who oppose it are "Bigots" as Gordo said in a moment of frankness,and Tories, ukip, BNP etc are exploiting ignorant people. We need more immigrants and more babies to counter the demographic time bomb. Or we will have no one to support the old and sick.

What ideas have you come up with to raise the birth rate?

Cheers!

Keith

[roym]

i wish cameron would really say what he means by "non-EU". i.e. we still want those nice aussies, kiwis and yanks but non of the dole scrounging somalians, kurds, etc.

[Shaun]

i just think professionals from non-eu have contributed positively to the system. they don't take benefit and the pay huge tax. what exactly is the problem of our government?...........

[jj]

Cap on non eu immigration.... It has become increasingly difficult for non europeans to gian visas for the UK. If you are not aquanted with non eu's you would not know that you need to show you have your uni fees plus maintenance funds for the during of your course if less than a year and 12 months if the course is longer and if you do get the visa you can only work 12 hours a week.
A highly skilled migrant would need to earn at least £30000 per year and that still wouldn't qualify you for a work permit, your age, maintenance funds, qualification ect all counts towards this....

Non eu migrants are NOT ENTITLED to benefits.

Eu migrants come here work a little claim benefits go home and still claim even though they are not here.......

[C]

I would like to state the obvious fact that not all Non-EU immigrants should be viewed in the same light. Highly skilled workers from South Africa, New Zealand and Australia can speak fluent English and are excellent workers, and are less likely to defraud the system. I feel strongly that the UK government are overlooking the enormous economic benefit that these Southern Hemisphere workers bring, but yet, they allow people into their borders freely to settle and abuse their benefit systems. These people sometimes can't speak a word of English and I just feel that they are missing the point all together.
As a former qualifying Tier 1 Visa Applicant, who since 22 December, aren't allowed entry anymore, I can only hope and pray that they realise their mistake sooner rather than later. Not everybody is there to use and abuse, some of us, just really love to swim in an international corporate market.