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October 25, 2011

Comments

Steve Connolly

Are you seriously suggesting that United's success is all down to privilege and luck, then?

Jeremy Poynton

Excuse me, but fuck off with your "Citeh" bollocks eh? I know that when City fans chant, you can tell that they are Mancs, and that when United fans chant, you can't, but don't push it.

That game is just the start. We will ruin Ferguson' retirement, and you'd better believe it. And how many teams - at home - lose a man and then another five goals? Were I you, I would not only be worried about your wimpy midfield, but also your wimpy defence - United are allowing more shots per game than any other Prem team.

dcomerf

Once you start down the dark path, forever will it rule your destiny...

Abdullah

@Jeremy Poynton: As Arsenal is our feeder club I expect van Persie to be on his way soon thanks to good old market forces.

(Nice to see you here by the way. I see you on the MEN website and MCVITA.)

tomslee

Most games, of course, don't go to 6-1 or 8-2, but end up at 0-0 or 1-0. One of the things about path dependency is that sometimes things are boring and middle of the road no matter what the history.

chris

@Tom. Fair point. I am conflating events of differing probabilities here. A 6-1 thrashing is low-probability, but consistent-seeking behaviour and the importance of a good career start are high-probability events.
But I think the general point holds.

Sean

Well we will have to see if the Tory backbenches or Dave goes chasing the game and the Poisson process comes into play, just as it did in the Manc Derby.

redpesto

Is there also a lesson for Osborne? United chased the game because they thought 'We are United, we can always get a goal back/last- minute winner/cut our way to economic growth', so they stick to attacking City/the deficit as if they still had 11 men/the same bright idea as they did back in May 2010...only the circumstances have changed/City are no longer a team of flaky pushovers.

Tom Addison

If there's one thing that's for certain, it's that there's no hindsight bias in knowing that Evans shouldn't have started and is a big bag of w*nk.

@ Steve, United did get lucky in that we "got big", so to stay, at the start of the post-Italia 90, post-Taylor report Premiership boom. Despite what some City fans may think/wish, chances are we're not going to "crumble" once Fergie leaves/retires/dies.

Strategist

Dies would be best.

Lisa

Interesting!

Keith

To some degree all this post amounts to is saying that past success produces overconfidence as people attribute their success to some exceptional talent or virtue in them selves rather than objective factors they don't control.

Put like this it is a valid point applicable to politics or sport and in the long run Cameron like Blair and Thatcher will go into the dust bin of history probably as a result of this ego centric bias. But it would be more useful to know how to avoid this fate if you are a politician or business man or football manager. Can you avoid being destroyed by your former success? And how do you do that?

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I am conflating events of differing probabilities here. A 6-1 thrashing is low-probability, but consistent-seeking behaviour and the importance of a good career start are high-probability events.
But I think the general point holds.

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