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March 10, 2013

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Anonymous

The fact that the definition of "economically inactive" does not capture the significant numbers of people who re-enter the labour market when opportunities arise indicates, to me at least, that the definitions are inaccurate.

Supply side reform is often cited as a panacea to cure our economic ills. I wonder how that most fundamental supply reform of them all, namely taking public ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange, would go down with supply side reformers?

Hmmm.

Anonymous

Yes, supply side reform is an agenda on which left-progressives need to fight. And win.

Ralph Musgrave

As Bill Mitchell (Australian economics Prof.) has pointed out ad nausiam, the political left worldwide is incapable of doing anything more than aping the neo-liberal economic illiteracy of the political right.

That being the case (which it is), I’m 100% certain that if there are solutions, they won’t come from bog standard lefties or bog standard “righties”. They’ll come from people with a genuine interest in economics. That’s 0.0001% of the population.

Moreover, with the Labour Party now being a thoroughly conservative (with a small “C”) party, the Labour Party will reject out of hand anything genuinely radical or socialist or progressive.

For example, the Labour Party won’t have anything to do with the essentially socialist idea, promoted by Positive Money, namely that only the state should create money. You’d think the latter idea was a no-brainer for socialists. But as I pointed out, socialists no longer have brains, and the Labour Party is not socialist.

Bill’s blog is here: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/

Keith

I do not see the problem here really. Or rather the problem we have in the UK, and USA, and Euroland is political not economic. Ralph Musgrave is correct. In the 1980s the left would have had no problem with a five year plan to boost GDP by 30 per cent. Or 40. Build council houses, hospitals, schools, roads; invest in rail, electricity, gas and water supply; raise wages increase welfare benefits. create a few million Jobs and redistribute National wealth to the many not the few.

The Political problem is that the main political parties do not want to increase the Labour share of National Income and base production on need rather than profit. The desirability of MMT or positive money etc is a technical issue. Where Ralph is wrong is to blame mere stupidity. It is the political implications of changing the Financial system that blocks any reform plan and the Tory party is bought and paid for by Banks. I doubt it is really necessary to radically alter the Banking system as such to boost growth and employment and change wealth distribution. You could argue that a properly regulated Financial system and large growth push would increase Banking profits and returns and more National Debt would aid the Banking and financial system by providing liqidity. The public and private sectors are complimentary and this kind of policy is not incompatible with a privately owned Banking system or Capital Market. But it would require a willingness to accept that revision of National wealth and controls that Thatcherism dismantled in the UK and Ragan dismantled in the US. Who gets the gains from growth is the underlying issue.

Anton

Watch Italy where the internet experiment is entering politics for the first time in a serious way. Grillo's movement may be a turning point in progressive politics. All of a sudden supply side socialism may become possible.

Broilster

Grillo is as close to fascist as makes no difference. Don't look to him for solutions of any kind. Berlusconism without Berlusconi about sums him up.

Broilster

'Labour Party is not socialist.' Agreed, but then it never was.

Greg vP

Two points.

The dearth of investment opportunities is due to managerialism.

Very roughly, investments can be placed along a continuum from "completely new product or service" to "production efficiency improvement".

Capitalism is agnostic about this continuum. An investment is an investment to a capitalist.

Managers, by contrast, are focused on increasing control and reducing risk. A managerialist economy is biased hard over to the "efficiency improvement" end of the spectrum.

Managerialism is why we can have technologically-induced unemployment at the same time as a stagnation in innovation. Few new products are being created because investment is going into making the production of existing products require less labour.

Second: increasing investment and technology growth rates is unnecessary. As Keith says, at bottom this is an issue of distribution. But the "inequality" lens makes the view of the subject hazier than need be.

GDP is a flow. All that is required is to take money from groups that aren't spending it, and give it to people who would spend it if they had it: flow increased.

(Yes, imports, but all interventions have costs. Policy is about trading costs.)

Johnnydub

In your analysis you seem to completely ignore the elephant in the room - the government is spending too much money... and the only two choices the governemnt has for dealing with this is either excessive taxes or currency debasement. In that environment why risk your capital? Especially now, when QE is causing such a bull run in stocks and bonds...


All you pfaffing on about supply side socialism etc.. is meaningless rubbish. The government being 49% of the economy is ridiculously unsustainable.

AndyfromTucson

To me the obvious solution is to adopt an MMT (See the Prof. Bill Mitchell blog mentioned in an earlier comment) inspired approach to managing the economy where government prints and spends money on infrastructure like a maniac whenever the economy is below full potential (measured by unemployment rate) and interest rates are at the lower bound and cuts back on printing and spending money whenever the economy shows signs of overheating (inflation, unemployment below 5%, etc). As Keynes observed a very long time ago in his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, when a large part of the workforce sits idle during a recession that is a irreplaceable loss of economic output.

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