Syria, trust & knowledge

There's one view of how the UK should react to the Syrian crisis that hasn't - with the possible exception of Robert Halfon (11.23" in) - been expressed. It's something like this:

This is not a matter for parliament or the public to debate. With a few exceptions - some of them of no account - everyone agrees that if Assad has used chemical weapons there is a moral case for restraining and punishing him: don't forget that intervention sometimes works. The question is one of practicality; is it possible to intervene for the better? Here, any fool can think of a dozen hypotheses why intervention might fail or backfire. Whether these hypotheses are correct depends upon conditions on the ground in Syria, of which most people - including MPs - have insufficient knowledge. Rather than have parliament debate the matter - which'll just give us pompous windbaggery and weaselling about the law - the decision should be taken by the PM, under guidance from the intelligence agencies who know the details of what's happening. This is a matter that should be left to the experts.

There's a big, obvious reason why almost nobody's saying this. It's that, since at least the "dodgy dossier", nobody trusts the security services at all.

Which raises an important point. Trust is not merely some airy-fairy moral concept or PR guff. It's an important real asset for an organization. The fact that the intelligence agencies don't have it severely impairs their ability to fulfill one of their proper functions, of informing the decision to go to war or not.That's a material weakness.

But the distrust should, I suspect, go further than this. The point Hayek so rightly made about economic knowledge - that it is fragmentary, partial and unreliable - applies even more to military intelligence. There's a reason why "for want of a nail" is an ancient rhyme; in war, tiny details can have huge effects. The concepts of complexity and emergence apply perhaps even more to civil wars than to other social phenomena.

There are some things which it is perhaps impossible to know. The fact that everyone seems to have an opinion on Syria tells us more about the ease with which opinions are formed than it does about what is actually happening in Syria or about the nature of knowledge.

Comments

[Luis Enrique]

great post. I suppose there's a distinction between trust/competence and trust/motives - for example even if one thinks the intelligence services are competent in terms of expertise they might have an agenda and consequently dissemble, mislead. The complexity point speaks to competence, but perhaps most people wouldn't trust an executive decision for the motivation reason. Although actually my guess would be it'#s still the politicians who are distrusted more than the intelligence services themselves.

[FromArseToElbow]

This is just the appeal to authority fallacy - i.e. the experts must always be right. The issue of trust is incidental.

I'd also question whether the intelligence agencies were damaged by the dodgy dossier, given that the "client" made it plain they wanted facts to fit a pre-determined policy. The agencies proved themselves to be obliging.

If governments valued independent expert advice, the corridors of Whitehall would not be thronged with McKinsey consultants and civil servants with Oxford PPEs.

[SteveH]

The West is so complicit in mass murder all around the world that it seems to me they have no moral authority to lecture anyone about anything. So the fact they are proven liars is beside the point really.

The difference between our criminals and the tinpots who run the developed world is that our criminal leaders end up on the international speaking circuit and earning millions lobbying on behalf of 'defence' contractors. Whereas the tinpots often end up dead.

Oppose the imperialist criminals.

[aragon]

Lack of Evidence or an excuse for vacillation?

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/08/27/exclusive_us_spies_say_intercepted_calls_prove_syrias_army_used_nerve_gas

"That's the kind of proof that America and its allies processed from earlier, small-scale attacks that the White House described in equivocal tones, and declined to muster a military response to in retaliation."

[...]

"Making the case even more conclusive were the images of the missiles that supposedly delivered the deadly attacks. If they were carrying conventional warheads, they would have likely been all but destroyed as they detonated. But several missiles in East Ghouta were found largely intact."

[...]

"one in which the Syrian government was clearly to blame."

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." - Burke.

[Six8Fifty]

There are just so many historical responsibilities in the whole Mideast mess.
And it seems to me that more meddling in the region's warfare will not solve anything, if not escalate things to a worse level.
However - humanitarian aid might be some kind of "honorable" intervention that the West (hmmm France and Great Britain...?) could shoulder in order to partially redeem their historical sins.
Just my 2 euro cents' worth

[Rob]

"Whether these hypotheses are correct depends upon conditions on the ground in Syria, of which most people - including MPs - have insufficient knowledge."

After all, they have neither the time, nor the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought...

[Blair]

"The fact that everyone seems to have an opinion on Syria tells us more about the ease with which opinions are formed than it does about what is actually happening in Syria or about the nature of knowledge"

Omit "Syria" and replace it with Miley Cyrus, mass-immigration, the price of cheese, or virtually anything else, and that sentence is equally valid. Just another pseud trying to look clever by saying nothing conclusive or insightful whilst referencing his extensive awareness of the latest trendy psycho-social theories.

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