On political bias

Chris Giles in the FT says that, underneath the bluster, "the parties have rarely been closer on economics" - which is just what Hotelling's law and the median voter theorem predict. This raises the question: why, then, do political partisans pretend otherwise?

Some of the reasons are innocuous. Salesmen rarely claim there's little difference between their products and their rivals', and there are a host of cognitive biases - such as the optimism bias and groupthink - which  cause them to oversell their own policies. And we might add to this the narcissism of small differences.

But there's something more subtle going on. There's a selection bias here. Most people who become interested in politics do so because they think policies matter. As a result, discussion of politics is disproportionately dominated by people who are prone to exaggerate the impact of policy.

Such talk, however, overlooks some important points. There's Adam Smith's insight that there's "a great deal of ruin in a nation" - that we can cope tolerably well with suboptimal policies (which is just as well). There's the evidence that national policies don't much affect trend GDP growth. And then there are the myriad structural and ideological constraints that limit what any government can do.

But here's the problem. This selection bias isn't just confined to political partisans. It also applies - generally speaking; there are exceptions - to political journalists (Chris, remember, is an economics writer). The guy who thought party politics was unimportant wouldn't become a political journalist in the first place, and wouldn't last long if he did.

In this sense, even journalism which aspires to be "neutral" is in fact biased. It's biased towards exaggerating differences: "clash", "row" and "deep divisions" are standard journalese. It's biased towards exaggerating the importance of such "divisions": how often do you hear Nick Robinson say "this doesn't really matter"? And it's biased towards giving the oxygen of publicity to those who think party politics matters, and thus underweights sceptical voices like Chris's.

These biases might be pernicious, insofar as they help to distract us from important facts - such as the possibility that, within capitalism, there's not often very much that any political party can (consciously?) do to transform the economy or society.  

Comments

[pablopatito]

Political parties may not be much different in aggregate, but at the margins their differences can be massive. As a middle-class person on a modest income, the government is unlikely to make any real difference to me, this is true. But at the margins, if I was very poor, or disabled, or an immigrant, or a multi-millionaire - policies can make a big difference. And since I try and vote altruistically according to who will help the poor and the downtrodden, I feel politics does matter: not for the majority as you point out, but for the minority who matter.

[Boursin]

The median voter theorem is a bit problematic, because where the median is seen to be located is itself subject to all the biases known to social psychology. For instance, tiny changes in the exact wording of polling questions can effect "changes" of tens of percentage points on issues such as economic policy. The real power, in a sense, is with those who get to decide the wording.

As a non-native speaker of English, by the way, it amuses me no end to see all those "rows", and all that "fury" and "anger", in contemporary public discourse in Britain. The old stereotype, of course, was that the British are masters of self-control, understatement, and general upper-lip-stiffening. But recently they've been using their language to make themselves sound increasingly like stereotypical gesticulating Latins.

[nm]

"Most people who become interested in politics do so because they think policies matter. As a result, discussion of politics is disproportionately dominated by people who are prone to exaggerate the impact of policy."

Exactly right Chris. I have this sort of discussion all the time with Scottish Nationalists, who seem to view every ill, major or utterly trivial, in Scotland as a consequence of Westminster or Labour policy decisions. When some tries to tell you that the amount people drink in Glasgow is due to decades of having Labour council control, you know you are dealing with an odd mindset.

[Paul J]

"the parties have rarely been closer on economics"

This is plain wrong. It's very clear the tories want to push a laissez faire agenda as hard as they can, whereas labour is pulling back leftwards.

There's more difference now than at any time since the mid nineties.

[rogerh]

I agree with the last sentence - not much they can do - the real economy will trundle on regardless. But a couple of questions come to mind, does our form of bipartisan government cost more than it generates? and what is it that actually drives our economy?

A typical 10 year parliament seems to follow the pattern - blame the last lot, undo their policies, institute your own policies (that fail) and then when it looks like you will lose the next election you poison the well for the next lot. Repeat ad nauseam whilst using a great many people. Now I don't see BMW or Shell (say) running their business like that, pretty sure they would go bust if they did.

So what really drives the British economy? Cutting each other's hair makes the money whizz round and round and finance and industry seem to scrape together enough to pay for imports. Seems to work but how/why - does anybody know?

[Alex Bollinger]

Policy's important for a lot of reasons. If anything, people underestimate the importance of policy, and that's why they think the parties are really different.

Consider political journalists, who don't give a fig about policy but are the most hyperactive about the parties clashing. It's only when people care about policy that they can see that the parties are similar.

Mainstream political parties in Europe and European offshoots are indeed similar on economic policy, but they're different in other areas. Hollande continued austerity but he did legalize same-sex marriage, which Sarkozy opposed.

Moreover, the linked paper doesn't show that policy isn't important in economics. Consider:

1. There are plenty of capitalist countries with drastically different growth trends than the UK or the US (India, Argentina, Indonesia, for example) that weren't included in the study.

2. Long-run growth isn't the only important variable. I would argue that people are *more* concerned about other variables like unemployment, income inequality, quality of life indicators, short-run BC fluctuations, inflation. Heck, I haven't even met a person without a background in econ who's aware that average income in any wealthy nation was bigger in 2010 than in 1970. People just plain don't care about long-run growth (which is not the same as it not being important).

3. 6 decades without a statistically significant difference in 17 countries is simply not the same as certainty that there is no difference in all decades in all capitalist countries.

The people who claim that mainstream political parties are vastly different on all policy issues - a stronger claim that I don't agree with - tend to be political journalists and professional/rabid partisans. That is, people who don't care about policy outcomes at all because their involvement in politics is not at all motivated by a desire to promote democracy.

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マークバイマークジェイコブス http://www.doble-u.eu/private/Marc-by-Marc-wallet-c-28016_28009.html/

[エアジョーダン2013]

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エアジョーダン2013 http://www.alightelectricalservices.co.uk/_common/21-Nike-Mercurial.html/

[エアジョーダン]

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エアジョーダン http://www.downruralareapartnership.com/aspnet_client/36-Nike-Air-Jordan.html/

[ナイキ ジョーダン]

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ナイキ ジョーダン http://www.merseysidecollectorscentre.co.uk/inc/35-Nike-Air-Force.html/

[エアジョーダン 通販]

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エアジョーダン 通販 http://www.wirralphoto.com/cps/36-Nike-Air-Jordan.html/

[ロエベ アウトレット]

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ロエベ アウトレット http://www.wirralphoto.com/inc/Loewe-Mens-items-c-1101_1102.html

[newbalance スニーカー]

鍚勩偗銉笺儩銉炽伄鏈€澶ч噺銇埄鐐广伅銆?4銉夈儷銇с仾銇戙倢銇般仾銈娿伨銇涖倱銆?5銆傘亗銇仧鑷韩銇儛銉笺偔銉炽儛銉冦偗銉戙儍銈倰鍙栧緱銇欍倠銆侀亷鍘汇伀銇濄亞闆ｃ仐銇勬墍鏈夈仐姣旇純銇椼伨銇欍€傘偍銉儭銈广仹鍚個鍖诲斧銉愩兗銈兂銈掕卜銇嗐亾銇ㄣ伅銇汇伡銇汇伡寰呫仯銉儍銈告暟骞淬亴鍚伨銈屻仸銇勩伨銇欍€傘亾銈屻伅銆佷竴鑸殑銇€佺壒銇コ鎬с仹銆佸コ鎬с伄鍏钩銇熀銇ャ亜銇︺儻銉笺偔銉炽偘銇ㄣ亜銇嗐€併偍銉儭銈广亴銇撱伄銉氥儍銉堛偔銉ｃ儶銈倰鐢熺敚銇欍倠銇撱仺銈掑瑷€銇椼伨銇欍€?
newbalance スニーカー http://newbalance.what-is-nuclear-medicine.com/

[ビジネスバッグ]

浠ｃ倧銈娿伀銇撱伄銉儑銉伄銉︺兗銈躲兗 銉椼儹銉曘偂銈ゃ儷銆併亰銈堛伋渚℃牸銈掕銇嗐仧銈併伀娌裤仯銇︺儢銉┿兂銉夎粖璨镐粯銇戦噾銇儜銉冦偙銉笺偢銈掓敮鎻淬倰杩般伖銈夈倢銇俱仚銆傘儣銉┿偆銉欍兗銉?銈炽兗銉?銉忋兂銉夈儛銉冦偘鎰忓洺銇曘倢銆併偆銈裤儶銈伄鑷劧銇編銇椼仌銇嬨倝銇仌銈屻伨銇欍€傚郊銈夈伅甯搞伀銇嗐倧銉笺仐銆併伅娣蜂贡銇腑銇с€佸競鍫淬仹璨╁２銇曘倢銇︺亜銈嬨仢銇粬銇晢鍝併仺銆傚郊銈夈伅寮枫仌銇ㄩ潪甯搞伀銉忋偆銈ㄣ兂銉夈伄銉曘偂銉冦偡銉с兂瑁芥ソ鍣ㄣ倰鍙栧緱銇椼伨銇欍€?
ビジネスバッグ http://www.lasertecmedical.com/media/TUMI-wallet-accessories-c-36001_36002.html