Osborne the Ballsian

Rick says that George Osborne's promise of an "absolute" budget surplus in the next parliament is unlikely to be achieved without considerable pain and tax increases.

As a check on this, we can think about financial balances. Simple accounting identities tell us that the government can run a surplus if and only if the rest of the economy - that is, the domestic private sector and the overseas sector - runs a deficit.

There are, roughly speaking, two ways in which this might happen - a good way and a bad.

The good way could happen through a combination of two things:

 - An export boom. This would mean that foreigners run a financial deficit, or - to put it the same way - the UK has a current account surplus. This would improve the public finances as export-generated jobs pulled in more taxes.

 - An investment boom. Historically, government surpluses have come during capital spending booms, such as in the late 80s and 90s. A housing boom would have a similar effect.

In these ways, a budget surplus is endogenous - or, to put in in sillier terms, "cyclical".

The bad way would be if the government actively aimed at a surplus. In cutting spending, it would depress domestic demand and imports - thus moving towards a current account surplus. And in depressing incomes, savings would tend to fall, thus putting the domestic sector into deficit.

In the good case, we have a budget surplus at a high level of income; in the bad case, at a lower level.

Rick claims that the good case is improbable. FWIW - given the futility of economic forecasts - I agree. But that's not my point. Instead, the question is: why did Osborne not distinguish between the two cases?

The irrational possibility is that he's fallen victim of that cognitive bias to which all politicians are prone, the illusion of control; he's exaggerating the influence he has over the public finances.

But there is a less irrational possibility. What Osborne is doing here is acting upon a principle of macroeconomic policy that was widely accepted in the 90s and 00s. This is that "credibility" gives policy-makers more power to stimulate the economy. For example, if a central bank has anti-inflationary credibility, a looser monetary policy would lead to real output growth rather than higher inflation expectations and rising prices. And a government which has the confidence of bond markets can borrow more cheaply and so - if necessary - act in a Keynesian fashion. As someone said in 1997:

Governments which pursue, and are judged by the markets to be pursuing, sound monetary and fiscal policies, can attract inflows of investment capital at higher speed, in greater volume and at a lower cost...they can use discretionary monetary, or indeed fiscal, policy to deal with macroeconomic shocks which need to be accommodated in the short term.

Osborne's unconditional promise to run a surplus can thus be seen as an attempt to shore up credibility and hence give himself more room to pursue discretionary policy if needed.

Now, you might reply that this is unnecessary; low long-term real interest rates show that bond markets aren't worried by government borrowing anyway. But Osborne isn't sure - perhaps for good reasons - that this will remain the case. As the old jibe has it, a conservative believes all markets are efficient except the bond market, whilst a Keynesian believes all markets are inefficient except the bond market.

But who was that guy I quoted? It was Ed Balls. Perhaps the difference between him and Osborne isn't so much one of principle as of empirics. 

Comments

[Ralph Musgrave]

Osborne (along with other finance ministers round the world) want a surplus so they can reduce the debt. But they can reduce the debt by any amount they want any time by simply printing money a buying back the debt, or ceasing to roll it over. In fact, they’ve being doing that BIG TIME for the last two years in the guise of QE.

And if the above is too inflationary, no problem: just raise taxes. In fact Milton Friedman and Warren Mosler advocated that governments should issue no interest yielding liability at all (i.e. no debt). That is, the only liability they should issue should be money (monetary base to be exact).

Disposing of the entire national debt and replacing it with monetary base really isn't difficult. Though a half way house would be to maintain some debt, but pay a miserable rate of interest on it, which is what the Japanese do.

[Andrew]

Aargh, you have broken my head this morning.
Given that I am not an economics specialist, I can't get my head round your "old saw" about conservatives/Keynesians and bond markets. And Google is no help.
Is there any chance you could expand for regular readers with limited intellect?

[chris]

@ Andrew - I had in mind something like the following:
Conservative (eg Niall Ferguson): "Govt debt will rise hugely, and this will lead to inflation."
Keynesian: "No it won't. And look at low bond yields - the market agrees with me."
C: "The bond market's wrong."
K: "Haven't you made TV shows and written books telling us that markets are great."
C: "And don't you agree with Shiller that bubbles are quite likely?"
Etc

[chris]

I called it an old jibe coz I remember seeing half of it somewhere, but don't remember where, and I don't want to wrongly claim credit for such a good line.

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エアジョーダン激安 http://www.lawcarpentry.co.uk/Pages/36-Nike-Air-Jordan.html/

[ジョーダン1]

銈裤偘锛?鎶€閲忋倰璩煎叆銇欍倠銉兗銉併兂銈掑惈銈€銇ㄣ偑銉炽儵銈ゃ兂銆乥angaloreFast 銇撱倢銇儓銉┿兂銈广儩銉笺儓 銈ㄣ儸銈儓銉儖銈偣銇у寲绮у搧銆嶉€佹枡 Pc 銇с伄 1 鏃? shippedIn24hours |2013 骞?7 鏈?23 鏃?- 銇濄倢銇湰褰撱伀銆佽壇銇勩仹銇欓浕瀛愮姮銇亰銈傘仭銈冦倓銈兂銉┿偆銉炽仹銇儞銉囥偑 銉椼儸銈笺兂銉嗐兗銈枫儳銉炽伄銈偗銈汇偟銉伄璨风墿銈掋仚銈嬭€冦亪銆傘仐銇熴倝閫氥倞銉曘偍銉炽偒銉┿儷鍛ㄨ竞銉栥儵銉炽儔鍚戜笂銇偪銈ゃ儰銇€佸揩閬┿仩銇ｃ仧闁撻仌銇勩仾銇忚í鍟忋仚銈嬨亾銇ㄣ仹銇欍€傚閲忋伄銉堛儸銉炽儑銈ｃ仾瀹躲仩銇戙仹銇亸銆亀omen麓s 銇?men麓s 鏈嶃伄璨╁２銈掓牸绱嶃仐銇俱仚銆傚眿鍐呫優銉笺偙銉冦儓琛ｉ銆併儛銉冦偘銆併偢銉ャ偍銉兗銈掕博澹层仐銇︺亜銇俱仚銆傜煡銇ｃ仸銇娿亸銇广亶銈广償銉笺儑銈?30 銇睘銇欍倠姗熻兘銇嬨倝銇撱倢銈夈伄绡勫洸銆傘偣銉斻兗銉囥偅 30 銇潪甯搞伀浜烘皸銇ㄩ銇嶃伄銇濄亾銇儸銉椼儶銈倰瑕嬨仱銇戙倠銇撱仺銇亗銈娿伨銇涖倱銆?
ジョーダン1 http://www.wbds.org.uk/styles/21-Nike-Mercurial.html/

[エアジョーダン1通販]

銇傘仾銇熴伄銈ゃ兂銈裤兗 銉嶃儍銉?銈点偆銉堛伄澶氥亸銇儢銉┿兂銉夈伄銈堛亞銇柟娉曘倰瑕嬨仱銇戙倠銆併仢銈屻倝銇嬨倝瀹屽叏銇臣鍏ュ绱勩倰婧栧倷銇屻仹銇嶃仸鍒╃敤銇椼伨銇欍€傘偑銈裤偗銆併偑銈裤偗銇韩銇潃銇戙仸銇勩倠鏃呬汉鐪奸彙銇仱銇勩仸鑰冦亪銈嬨亱銈傘仐銈屻仾銇勩亗銇仧銇棩鍓嶃伀鎴汇仯銇︺仩銇ㄦ€濄亜銇俱仚銆傘亾銈屻伅鍐掗櫤閲庨儙銉炪偗銈偆銉愩兗銆侀毤銇爞涓娿€併偢銈с兗銉犮偣 銉?銉溿兂銉夈伄銈堛亞銇鏄熴儐銉儞銇仚銇广仸銇彜鍏哥殑銇銇?80 骞翠唬銈枫儳銉笺倰鎰涙儏銈掕炯銈併仸瑕氥亪銇︺亜銈嬨亗銇仧銈掍綔銈嬨亾銇ㄣ亴銇с亶銇俱仚銆?
エアジョーダン1通販 http://www.devbuild.co.uk/devfloors/32-Football-Uniforms.html/

[エアジョーダン1]

銇ㄣ伀銇嬨亸銆併亾銇瓍鎯戠殑銇儦銈仹婧躲亱銇椼仧銇勩亸銇ゃ亱銇濄伄浠栥伄瑕佺礌钁夌鍙ゃ亜銉戙兂銈€侀潪甯搞伀鑹亜鍙栧紩銇コ銈夈仐銇曘伄鎰熴仒銆傚€嬨€?銇儠銈ｃ儸銉炽儎銈с仺銆屻偣銈炽偄銇ㄥ瘜銇〃鐝俱€嶃伄銉堛儍銉楀晢妯欍偆銉°兗銈搁噺銉┿偆銈汇兂銈广仺涓€绶掋伀銈般儍銉佹垜銆?瑁曠銇泊鏃忋伄娑堣不銇垚闀枫仐銇︺亜銇俱仚銆備粖銇с伅銈ゃ偪銉偄銇敮閰嶇殑銇儠銈°儍銈枫儳銉炽伄搴冨ぇ銇厤鍒椼€?
エアジョーダン1 http://www.welltaken.co.uk/cms/32-Football-Uniforms.html/

[ジョーダン1]

澶у瀷銇叮鍛炽亴銇傘倠銇撱仺銇屻仹銇嶃倠鏃呰銇欍倠蹇呰銇屻亗銈嬪繀瑕併仐銇俱仚銇屻€併偣銉炪兗銉?銈儸銈搞儍銉堟悕澶便倰鏀墪銇嗐亾銇ㄣ亴銇с亶銈嬪畬鍏ㄣ伀銆傘亗銇仧銇紤鏃ャ倰瑷堢敾銇欍倠鍫村悎銇€佷簩銇ゃ伄璨荤敤銇偦銉冦儓 銉愩偊銉炽偣銈掑叆銈屻仸 锛佽粖銇敮鎵曘亜銆佸娉婃柦瑷伄鏀墪銇勩€侀鍝佽珛姹傛浉銇娿倛銇冲叕姝ｃ仺鑽风墿 1 銇ゃ仐銈堛亞銇ㄣ仐銇︺亜銈嬪牬鍚堛伄璨犳媴浣撻〒銇潵銈嬨€傛敮鎸併仹銇嶃倠銇ゃ倐銈娿仹瑕嬨倝銈屻仧銇濄倢銈夈仺銇椼仸涓汇伀銈ゃ兂銉囥偅銈儕銇嬨倝銆佸叏閮ㄣ亴銇撱倢銈夈伄銈偗銈枫儳銉炽亴鍚伨銈屻伨銇欍€佸簝澶с仾鐫＄湢鐫€鐢ㄣ偖銉ｃ兂銉栥儷 銈点偆銈儶銉炽偘銈搞儯銉笺偢銇倐銇嬨亱銈忋倝銇氥仢銇撱伅瀹熼殯銇寚灏庤€呫伄閫侀ⅷ姗熴€佽拷鍔犲唴鎰涘浗鑰呫伄鏀寔鑰呫伅瀹屽叏銇?n. n. l. 銈掓妸鎻℃柊銇椼亜鑻ヨ€呫伄鏃呰銇啋闄虹殑銇勾闀疯€呫伄寰屽郊銇€氬父绲岄〒銇с仚銆?
ジョーダン1 http://ascotjoinery.co.uk/test/2-Nike-Free.html/

[ナイキ ジョーダン]

褰笺伅銈ㄣ偆銈恒倰鍗樸伀銇倛銇ｃ仸銈掔ず銇欍亾銇ㄣ伀銈堛仯銇﹁嚜鍒嗐伄瓒炽仺褰笺倝鐧虹敓銇欍倠銇撱仺銇屻仹銇嶃倠鏂规硶銇ㄣ仐銇﹂暦銇忋伄銇熴倎銇コ鎬с伄韬伀鐫€銇戙仸銇勩倠銉囥偠銈ゃ兂銇ㄣ亗銇仧銇渶楂樸伄绔嬫柟浣撱倰銇欍倠銇撱仺銇屻仹銇嶃伨銇欍€傘儣銉┿儉 銉忋兂銉夈儛銉冦偘鍏ㄤ綋銉曘偂銉冦偡銉с兂璩囨簮銇銇忋伄褰仹鏉ャ倠銇椼€佺礌鏅淬倝銇椼亜鍊ゅ繀瑕併亴銇傘倞銇俱仚銆? 銇ゃ伄鎵€鏈夌墿銇皯閲忋伄閬告姙銆併儓銉┿兂銈广儩銉笺儓鐝鹃噾銇究鍒?銉€銉炽儑銈ｃ兗 銈儵銉冦儊銈掓墍鏈夈仹銇嶃伨銇欍€傘伨銇熴伅婧€瓒炽伄銇熴倎銆佷笂瑷樸伄骞冲潎銈广儓銉┿儍銉椾粯銇嶃偣銉兗銉?銉涖兗銉溿兗 銉愩儍銈般倰銈广儹銉笺仚銈嬨亾銇ㄣ亴鍙兘銇с仚銆傚皞闁€瀹躲伀銈堛仯銇︽礂娴勩仚銈嬪繀瑕併亴銇傘倞銇俱仚銆傚敮涓€銇湰褰撱伄銉愩儍銈般伅銇傘伨銈娿伀銈傛睔銈屻仸銇勩仾銇勫牬鍚堛伅銇傘仾銇熻嚜韬亗銇仧銇儓銉笺儓銉愩儍銈般倰銈广偗銉┿儢銇欍倠銇撱仺銇犮仯銇熴€?
ナイキ ジョーダン http://www.kevinpottsdecorators.co.uk/js/32-Football-Uniforms.html/

[エアジョーダン1通販]

琛ｈ銇枹銇椼仸銇€併亾銈屻倝銇儵銉冦儣銇€併亰銇濄倝銇忓畬鐠с仾銈偤銉亱銈傘仐銈屻伨銇涖倱銆備紳绲辩殑銇。瑁呫伀銆佸€嬩汉銇岄檺瀹氥仌銈屻€併伨銇熴€佸敮涓€銇偒銈搞儱銈儷銇湇瑁呫伀銆乽銈掑埗闄愩仌銈屻仸銇勩伨銇欍€?/span>銆傚疅闅涖伀銇亗銇仧銇伅銆併亜銇忋仱銇嬨伄銉囥偠銈ゃ儕銉笺伄瀹跺涵銈勩儚銈ゃ儝銉笺儷銈掔潃鐢ㄣ仐銆併倛銈婁尽鍊ゃ伄楂樸亜銆佹渶绲傜祼鏋溿伅鎶滄湰鐨勩仹銇欍€傘仢銈屻仹銈傘€併亗銇仧銇儠銈°儍銈枫儳銉炽仺涓€绶掋伀浠婃棩銇€併仢銈屻仦銈屼唬琛ㄧ殑銇?闈倰鎸併仯銇︺亜銈嬨亾銇ㄣ伅闁撻仌銇勩仾銇勪汉銇厤鍒椼倰琛ㄧず銇椼仧銇ㄣ亶銆佸郊銈夈伅褰笺倝銇澊銇岃嚜鍒嗐伄鏃ャ€呫伄銈广偪銈ゃ儷銇ぇ瑕忔ā銇绱犮倰鐢熸垚銇欍倠銇撱仺銈傘€佽娆恒倰妞滅煡銇欍倠銇犮亼銇фソ銇椼亜娲诲嫊銇屽骇甯伄銉併偙銉冦儓銈勩儜銉炽儎姹椼倰銇嬨亸銆?
エアジョーダン1通販 http://www.railwaytavernstratford.co.uk/index_files/32-Football-Uniforms.html/

[エアジョーダン1]

銇濄倢銇舰鐘躲倓銈广偪銈ゃ儷銇€插寲銇椼仸銇嶃仧銆傚郊銈夈伄琚嬨伄鏅強銇椼仸銇勩倠鍋撮潰 rr 绉併仧銇°偍銉冦偦銉炽偡銉ｃ儷銈勬寔銇＄墿銈掑彇銈嬫湰褰撱伀瀹夊叏銇┖闁撱仹銇欍€傘亗銇仧銇€嬩汉鐨勩仾鐗╃悊鐨勩伀銇€佸郊銇湇銈勯澊銇倛銇嗐伀妲嬫垚銇椼仸銇勩倠褰笺伄銇汇仺銈撱仼銇с仚銆傝嚜鍒嗐伄鏈嶃伄渚″€ゃ亴澶氥亸銇牬鍚堛€佷汉銆呫伅銆佸郊銈夈亴鑲屻倰閫併倞鍑恒仚閲嶈鏂规硶銆傘亗銇仧銇岀潃銈嬨倐銇伅銆併偄銈偊銉炽儓銇€佷笘鐣屻仹銇傘仾銇熴伄銈儣銈枫儳銉炽仺闆囩敤銈掑彇銈嬨仩銈嶃亞銆傜銇亗銇仧銇甌witterand銇俱仌銇ソ銇峀inkedIn銇€佹椿鐧恒仾鍑轰笘銇倛銇嗐仾灏辫伔娲诲嫊銇亾銇ㄣ仹鏈€鏂般伄銉勩兗銉倰浣跨敤銇椼仸淇￠牸銇椼仸銇勩伨銇欍€?
エアジョーダン1 http://www.sothisstar.co.uk/BackIssuesPage_files/12-Nike-Air-Max.html/

[ナイキ ジョーダン]

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