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March 04, 2015


Roy Lonergan

Some unusual coverage for your local team. What fallacy/bias resulted in you becoming a gooner?


Roy - the first game I watched on TV was thr 72 Cup final between Leeds & Arsenal. I knew nothing about football except that I hated Leeds, so Arsenal it was and stayed. Also, I liked the shirts.
Oddly, in the early 70s, City were actually a better team than Arsenal & I was the only Gooner at school. Always the rebel.

Roy Lonergan

Hating Leeds - so neither a fallacy nor a bias. Sadly the first game my Dad took me to was at West Ham so I've been blighted ever since (1980 excepted).

Roy Lonergan

Chris - if you're looking for themes for football related posts, how about people ignoring regression to the mean (I think this is different from hot hand?). For example, Big Sam taking a lot of unwarranted stick because of the order of what on average are a set of results showing progress. .


I've often been annoyed by the fallacy stuff, because on the one hand we have the gambler's fallacy, but we also have reversion to the mean.

How do you identify Pearson (esp. talking about Man U.) as a gambler, gambling on a run of bad performances resulting in a good one, as opposed to some expectation that the bad performances are not the mean?

marcel proust

So, in that famous unpublished paper, when Larry Summers asserted, "“THERE ARE IDIOTS. Look around.”, was he merely being overconfident, or was he focusing on the wrong thing? or both?


Icarus Green

Its fascinating isn't it - idiots cancel out geniuses to provide a stable equilibrium. How should geniuses react to this? Should they assume reversion to the mean in markets? Or should they follow the smart money? And then of course theres the discrete truth that the investment is either fundamentally good or bad that must reveal itself in due time. Or perhaps, halo effects mean the attention idiots give a stock (and if geniuses bandwagon in anticipation, them too) means that the stock will simply fulfill a self fulfiling prophecy. So weird. Causuality seems to go in all directions.

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