On obliquity neglect

Reading this tosh makes me wonder: is Mesut Ozil being unjustly criticized for the same reason that George Osborne has escaped sufficient public censure for his failure to cut government borrowing as much as he predicted?

The common link is that people over-rate the role of effort, and so give others too much credit for trying. This might be a manifestation of the representativeness heuristic; we think that trying to do something is similar to actually doing it, and so applaud the effort.

Because Osborne makes a great play of taking “tough decisions” (tough for others, that is) to reduce the deficit, voters applaud his effort. Conversely, Ozil’s languid style makes people think he isn’t trying – “the willingness to dig in and fight are just nowhere to be seen” says Adrian Durham – and so under-rate him.

Now, of course in many contexts effort should be applauded because it is necessary for success. As Matthew Syed shows, the power of purposeful practice is immense and that of raw talent over-rated. In other contexts, however, effort can be counter-productive, for two reasons.

One is the Yerkes-Dodson effect. We can be over-motivated (pdf) and thus choke under pressure: John Terry was surely trying to score that penalty in the 2008 Champions League final – but he might have been trying too hard. Mesut Ozil’s genius is that he has the ability to play the right pass under pressure; to do that he needs a cool head, but this can give the impression of a lack of effort.

The second is that, in interacting with others, our efforts can be stymied.  The lesson of the simple prisoners’ dilemma is that one man’s effort to get off – by dobbing in his colleague - can cause him to get sent down. Similarly, Osborne’s efforts to reduce borrowing failed in large part because of the bog-standard paradox of thrift.

This point generalizes. In Obliquity, John Kay writes:

The most profitable businesses are not the most profit-oriented. The wealthiest people are not those most assertive in the pursuit of wealth

Instead, he says, “complex goals are often best achieved indirectly”. For example, the company that focuses upon make good products will do better than one dedicated to maximizing shareholder value – in part because such companies cause their employees to lose intrinsic motivation; hence the mass fraud at banks, for example.

However, it seems that people commonly under-rate all this. Shareholders often want companies to focus on shareholder value just as fans on that perennial moronfest 6-0-6 want their teams to show “passion” rather than skill or intellect.

In the same way, I fear that voters under-estimate the virtue of the oblique path to deficit reduction: lower government borrowing is something achieved as a by-product of fixing the (global?) economy rather than by aiming at it directly.

 Perhaps, therefore Osborne and Ozil have something in common: one is the beneficiary, and the other the victim, of the same cognitive error – that of obliquity neglect.

Comments

[israeli gunner]

Fellow gunners: some of you may remember me,since 2005 to 2014 i used to publish my opinion against the sickening ego of Mr' Wenger,and the incompetence of the arsenal board . I blamed the arsenal fans,for not doing enough,in order to change the negligent manner of Wenger and the board. I use to end my criticism by saying- "with wenger and the board, we will never win the championship again". Most of the arsenal fans,were vigorously against my opinions and argue me to go and support united or spurs... Since 2014,i didn't raise my opinion any more,i lost hope,like some of you now. 2 days ago,i saw a tiny shade of light in our miserable tunnel of our football club. Some fans start to gather some hope and decided to FIGHT for our club!!! Every arsenal fan all over the globe need to understand that these coming Saturday is the pinnacle moment in our club future. These Saturday,we need to gather in and around the stadium,with or without ticket, we all need to raise our voice against the people that ruin our club. We need to raise our voice and say-enough is enough. We need to raise our voice and demand-bring our hope back. We need to raise our voice and demand-bring the passion back. We need to raise our voice and demand-BRING OUR CLUB BACK!!! We need to raise our voice,in order that in a few years time,each and every one of you,could say-i have contributed my part for getting our arsenal back. I intend to publish these message through the net,in order to raise the need for action,i urge you fallow gunners to do the same. I hope that i succeed to express my passion for the club,with my cranky English.

[Dave Timoney]

So, israeli gunner, what you're saying is that we need to show more passion? That only through a commitment to FIGHT can we BRING OUR CLUB BACK from wherever it has temporarily disappeared to down our MISERABLE TUNNEL, yes?

Let me think about that for a minute. In the meantime, on behalf of everyone, I'd like to thank you for your timely and cogently-argued contribution

Your fallow gunners

[Jonathan da Silva]

Reads like a critique of hedge-fund owned business. XXX trying to turn XXXXXX Airways into a label not an airline that employs people other than by contract - with high fares. Great idea till planes start dropping from the sky or no one's computer systems hook up and no one admits error.

[Bob]

"George Osborne has escaped sufficient public censure for his failure to cut government borrowing as much as he predicted?"

Additionally he also failed to stop the moon shining and the sun coming up.

[Tom]

The English "passion" obsession in sport has been around for as long as I can remember, and I can't see it going away anytime soon. Even the foreign managers buy into it when interviewed on TV (has a team winning from a losing position ever not been described as having "shown character", rather than, say, "tactical intelligence"?)

Re Ozil, we had the same at Man United with Berbatov, with the idiocy worse by the fact that he overlapped with and followed on from Carlos "shows passion" Tevez (whose goalscoring record with us, for the record, was shite).

Still, at least you're champions "away from home", oi oi.

[Luke]

Tom, Simon Kuyper (I think) had a great anecdote about playing park football in various countries: the Swedes were very supportive of other players, particularly if they had made a mistake; the English harangued each other about passion and effort; the Dutch only criticised teammates for stupidity.

[rogerh]

In some fields like sport or war the 'dig in and fight' approach might work - or get you relegated or killed. For Osborne probably knows the job is impossible, all he has to do is look as if he's doing a job. Not as if he is in any electoral danger. So looking as if he is trying is quite good enough to hold off the Daily Mail and the like, the FT readers perfectly understanding George's game. As for Britain fixing the global economy, we are paralysed by Brexit and post referendum the whining will not stop - the long-term being 'what's after lunch'.

As for Obliquity I would say it was pretty difficult to plan to ensure long term profits, luck and zeitgeist play a big part. Apple was one of the lucky ones in the phones business and probably the worst thing it could do is hire a bunch of consultants to advise on how to keep the money flowing. That way lies almost certain oblivion, even IBM only narrowly pulled out of its death spiral.