Does character matter?

Trump’s election victory has been regarded as a defeat for pollsters and the liberal elite. But there’s another group who should worry about it – HR managers. This is because Trump’s presidency is a big and public test of a hypothesis: of whether past character predicts job performance.

Imagine you were hiring a senior manager. The following candidate pitches up. He has no directly relevant past experience: Trump has never held elected office. He has little understanding of what the position entails; Trump’s grasp of the constitution is shaky. His past business management has resulted in several bankruptcies and unpaid debts. He has confessed to sexual harassment. And this is not to mention the narcissism and sociopathy.

Many HR managers would tell us they wouldn’t let such a candidate through the door.

Which poses the questions. How, then, can Trump be anything other than a disaster as president? If he isn’t wouldn’t this suggest that all the effort spent screening candidates is a waste of time and money? Why not just pick them at random? (I suspect the median American is of better character than Trump).

The answer to this lies in the possibility that Trump’s character might not be a complete liability, in at least three ways:

 - In a president, being representative of the people, who themselves are ignorant and prejudiced, is desirable. There’s something in the Bill Stone theory of democracy.

 - There are checks and balances. Not only are there constitutional constraints on what the president can do, but the president also has access to the best advice, if he wants it. Mervyn King said that being Governor of the Bank of England “is actually the easiest job I’ve ever done…you’ve got tremendous support.” Whilst this isn’t entirely true of the presidency – he’ll find lots of opposition! – he can have a strong support network to smooth out the impact of his character flaws.  

 - Policy matters more than character. If Trump can invest well in infrastructure and simplify the tax code whilst his promises on protectionism and immigration control get diluted, he might not be an unmitigated catastrophe.

Psychologists believe there is only a weak link at best between measurable personality traits and job performance. And the fundamental attribution error cautions us that we often over-rate the importance of personality and under-rate that of the environment. Let’s hope Trump’s opponents are making this mistake.

Now, I must caveat this. A big part of why character matters is that it might help predict how a man responds to surprises. If we’re lucky, the surprises a Trump administration gets will not highlight his flaws. (If were’ not…)

 Nevertheless, there is an important question here that applies far beyond Trump: how far does character matter? Mightn’t policy and circumstance matter more? Can personality be restrained or enhanced by institutions?

The answers, of course, differ from time to time, place to place and job to job. It is insofar as such differences exist that a successful-ish Trump presidency would not invalidate traditional hiring practices. But then again, plenty of narcissists and psychopaths do become CEOs. So perhaps the American electorate isn’t so different from HR bosses after all.

Comments

[Carol]

I feel pretty stymied by Trump, who won because of the Electoral College. 53.6% of all eligible voters actually voted. Trump got 47.4% of that vote, and Clinton got 47.9%. In effect, a MINORITY of 25% of all eligible voters voted for Trump but he got the electoral votes. Are all those non-voters being represented? Are that many people really ignorant, or have they been persuaded by our 2 party system that their voice will never be heard so why bother? I just find the "analysis" so infuriating, but even more so the alienation of a huge swath of voters by a restrictive political system.

[Patrick Kirk]

There is no evidence HR screening actually does anything more than weed out people who simply cannot do the job. Its easy to eliminate hopeless people applying for a C++ job but unless your choose random criteria, its a lot harder to eliminate applicants for a football team manager job or any job based on inspiration and social skills.

[Carol]

Also, here in the US HR bosses usually only "hire" the flunkiest of flunkies. Otherwise they mostly just cull resumes and present to the managers the most "promising" resumes. This means there is a self-perpetuating flow of psychopaths hiring psychopaths. The CEOs are hired by a board of narcissists and psychopaths,so HR is pretty much out of the loop by the management level.

[Blissex]

«being Governor of the Bank of England “is actually the easiest job I’ve ever done…you’ve got tremendous support.” Whilst this isn’t entirely true of the presidency»

That "support" means that M King had an amazing depth of capable, motivated back-office staff helping him do his job, rather than he had no opposition.

Having a very good smoothly working back-office staff is critical for politicians too; as to a recent example N Clegg in an interview to The Guardian said that he lacked that when he started being in government and he was swamped.

Let's hope that D Trump knows that well from his business experience.

[Dipper]

The lesson of the US election is that when people have to choose between a reasonable compassionate person who states that they represent demographics to which you don't belong and a deplorable human being who states they represent you, people choose the demographic over the character.

[Andrew Lilico]

Isn't it pretty plausible that character traits that serve middle managers badly might serve CEOs of large outfits or Presidents well?

[gastro george]

Clinton wasn't a "reasonable compassionate" candidate - she was the status-crappy-quo, Third Way, sold-down-the-river-to-Goldmans my-buggins-turn candidate - the worst kind to put up against Trump.

Facts: Trump polled 2 million less than Romney. Clinton polled 7 million less than Obama. She just didn't get the vote out. She even lost ground with young white educated women, one of her main demographics you would have thought, FFS.

[Dipper]

gastro - my comments were about her as a person. I'm sure your assessment of her history is correct.

If you are going to base your politics on identity and demographics, you really need to be sure you have a set of demographics that can deliver a win, and you need to be sure you can get them to the ballot box.

The most startling statistic I've seen on the election is the turnout. what a dreadfully low number.

[gastro george]

As well as apathy due to a crap candidate, voter suppression is a major thing in the US.

[Jeff]

The premise here is wrong. The voters didn't face a decision of whether or not to hire Trump. They had to decide whether to hire Trump or Clinton. That difference can't possibly have escaped you, so it would appear you are arguing in bad faith.

[Duncurin]

Obama once said that presidents never take easy decisions, since decisions have reached the Oval Office because there is no easy answer. Even the wisest cannot see all ends, as Gandalf assures us, so it may be that a novice choosing at random could do as well as a clever (but inevitably biased) politician.

[The Philosopher]

I find these comments hilarious.

People are not blind to trumps flaws. The establishment (and their brainwashing of low NARR function people such as yourselves) which has given us open borders, Rochdale, Calais, 30 years of stagnant wages, massive housing inflation, decimated industry, unending war, terrorism, the Blank Slate of race and gender 'science' and so on don't get it.

They assume people are idiots. 50% of Americans are idiots in this queer model of reality (no mention that the average IQ of Trump supporters is higher than Hilary's, look at the exit polls - what does college education and race correlate with...DING DING, that's right Agatha...)

Use your narrative function.

The media is controlled by 4 or 5 corporations, many of whom are foreign agents. Your data is distorted. The messages edited. The videos sometimes have paid actors. Your Jim Jones Western suicide cult ideology an invention. An illusion seeded in your mind since your impressionable formative years with Atticus Finch fantasy novels. Your well is poisoned.

Some people like myself can unscramble it, almost fully, but not without psychological pain unfortunately. Others leaning too quant/low verbal are too autistic sadly.

Like Newton, the ideology of Master will always remain like a Teddy Bear.

So let me spoonfeed.

Brexit happened in the UK because in your model 52% of people are also stupid in the UK, despite mainstream media warnings, Central Bank Governor Intervention, Foreign leader urgings and 'expert' economic recession predictions, BBC coverage etc etc.

Ok, they got the argument. So maybe they are deaf and blind then?

You don't find the polling in Brexit/Trump and the other associated garbage predictions to be way off, to be indicative of an Illusion?

No? Back to the stupid people proposition then.

Education is about unlearning 'education', not regurgitating Master's talking points of the 140+ verbal IQ people that hypnotise you.

Even if we accept people that vote for Brexit/Trump are 'stupid' they at least haven't 'learned' useless or pernicious Harper Lee fiction morality plays or watched too many Hollywood movie where every Black person is a theoretical physicist and tick their heads at masters operant conditioning of 'racism' and 'sexism' 'islamophobic' and so on like a good little doggy woggy.

Social medial is killing their narrative control. Basically reality is almost the opposite.

All nations states are built on homogenous tribal ethnicities and races. We tried the empire, multikulti alternative...it ends in:

Sarajevo, 1914. Goodbye Austria Hungary.

Open your eyes! If you truly believe open borders and outsourcing to child labour in East Asia has made the world a better place, for a few percentage points in GDP growth per year (which goes to non-doms anyway and ends up offshore killing Agg D and offsetting it) you must be out of your mind.

Hahaha. Why do you think Corbyn is so popular? Why is May adopting Farage talk? Indeed, why is Farage popular?

"The people are stupid. They need to be 'educated' with master's brainwashing. Let's get rid of democracy and give policy to easily bribed and blackmailed central bankers and judges. Yeah, that'll work. Centralising power in a handful of pliable plutocrat toads." Kill Hayek.

"The people need to be 'educated'. More free trade with Burma. More open borders. We will educate them with sophisticated Ricardian trade models of apples and Iphones! And show how immigration boosts aggregate demand by...babies! That's it. Quantity>quality. And more, babies! All babies are the same genetically. Yes! Babies. Precious bodily fluids."

You are all completely deluded! You have lost all sense of reality. Visit Shadwell. Visit Rotterham. Visit East Ham. Stop reading their newspapers. Get out and see. Media is operating at massive losses and subsidised for a reason - your enslavement.

You have not felt the pinch like the majority of your fellow white citizens have.

I have no doubt you will all be similarly shocked when a real populist takes the British government, or deposes Anglea 'Woman of the Year/Come in Baby, the water's warm' Merkel or some other pliable goon of the Davos Set.

And your conclusion: People are Stupid.

Look in a mirror.

[The Philosopher]

Newton loved Bible Studies.

The ideology of Master.

Be a good slave. Turn your cheek.

[Andy S]

Chris, through your blog, you introduced me to the seminal work of Robert Cialdini's "Influence" and the 6 principles of persuasion. Character doesn't really play a big role in persuasion. Trump exploited the "Scarcity" principle brilliantly: Scarcity- "It is not enough to simply tell people about the benefits they will gain if they choose your products and services, but you’ll also need to point out what is unique about your proposition and what they stand to lose if they fail to consider your proposal. Losses loom larger in our minds. Loss is a motivator." I think Trump's message of job losses to trade, globalization and illegal immigrants and loss of gun ownership rights due to Hillary's policies is what motivated so many to come out and vote for him. What do you think?

[MJW]

My previous employer was a big blue chip corporate, the vast majority of its senior management layer actually had any technical expertise in the core product and services the organization supplies. They were a mixture of accountants (typically from the Big 4 accounting firms), marketers (typically from the huge FMCG stable) or management consultants (typically from the big snake oil firms). The City seems to think this generic, non-specialist, all purpose management "expertise" a good thing, to me most of them came across as empty suits.

[Bonnemort]

Bill Clinton, David Lloyd George, John F Kennedy - all with a history of sexual shenanigans. If Churchill's financial dealings in the 30s had been widely known (near-bankrupt, he was kept afloat by wealthy businessmen who liked his anti-Nazism), who knows if his career wouldn't have been sunk?

Carol "In effect, a MINORITY of 25% of all eligible voters voted for Trump but he got the electoral votes."

Blair got 22% of ACTUAL votes in 2005, but considered it a mandate for mass Eastern European immigration to the UK.

The Philosopher - I'm just looking at my Rough Guide for North-East India. Opening line:

"Many insurgencies, caused by a vast ethnic diversity, have fractured the region since Independence".

[Dave Hansell]

Ah! Looks like the Amalgamated Union of Philosophers, Sages, Luminaries and other Professional Thinking Persons has woken up from its slumbers.

I never met a single individual from this group who ever let solid facts and real evidence get in the way of a good old fashioned self righteous rant.

Thus we witness the fantasist delusional and totally factually inaccurate in every way statement about homogenous tribal ethnicity from within a state that over time has been created and evolved from wave after wave of different ethnic groups and tribes from Celts, Picts, Angles, Romans, Saxons, Danes, Scandinavians, and Normans, through to Jews, Moors, Dutch, Hugenots, Hanovarians, Africans, Italians, and a host of others from the former Empire now Commonwealth not to mention other parts of the European peninsula many of whom laid down their lives and bodies to help this country prevail between 1939 and 1945 and without which we could well have faced another 1066 era.

The irony here is palpable because there is not a single individual living in these islands, of whatever colour or shade of colour who can lay claim to originate from a single tribal, ethnic or race grouping. Trying to pretend to oneself that this is so or only 'they' represent some mythical racial, tribal or ethnic purity is not just baying at the moon it's effectively and ultimately arguing and wishing for a non-society based on and split along small bands of extended family groups/tribes each wary of the presence any non extended family individual(s) lest their perceived single homogenous purity of blood, ideas, culture, rituals etc is 'diluted' by a single iota from the one true ethnic tribal purity.

Worse than that, this line of argument ignores the reality that we all inhabit a single rock floating in a void with limited finate resources and growing populations which requires as much cross fertilisation between groups as possible if anyone is going to have a survivable future. Life exists as a result of diversity and will only continue to exist on that basis. Trying to operate on an approach based on putting all your eggs in one basket labelled ethnic and tribal homogeneity is the quickest way to extinction. Get used to it because not only everyone else's survival depends on that reality but also your own.

[reason]

Dave Hansell,
very good you said it for me. To quote what he said:
"All nations states are built on homogenous tribal ethnicities and races"
I would note in the other direction that absolutely NO nation state is built on a race, and there is no such thing as a homogenous ethnicity. I live in Germany and I notice, amongst the long established residents Slavic names, Scandavian and French names as well as quite funny names in German (that people obviously picked out of a hat when they had to) and I note that the country is relatively recently united and that in the surrounding countries it has names reflecting different tribes from a long history.

[Jim Harrison]

The notion that Trump's performance will be improved by his advisors is pretty laughable. Trump is a deplorable human being; but many of the people around him are even more deplorable; and the Republican party as a whole has been moving in the direction of white nationalism for more than a decade now.

[wick]

what does "NARR" mean?

[Blissex]

«what does "NARR" mean?»

Probably something related to the amygdala... Which is real, but a bit overestimated by many who argue like "The Philosopher". Whom also overestimate the import of Brexit and the swing in the rust-belt states.

[The Philosopher]

Semanticology is not a dialectic argument mon frere.

Errgaiinn.

Many of those tribes didn't 'come' over. They invaded. Invasion = war, pillage, and resource extraction. Normans invaded England. 1000 years later, and after feudalism has long since faded, everything is hunky dorey with Normans. For about 200 years after though the native serfs resented paying rent to their new Norse masters. At least their Norse masters weren't genetically far far different to never be able to assimilate.

Many of those tribes, particularly those genetically far off from the existing demos like Africans, only integrated due to their small numbers and the talented tenth aspect of immigration. Master brings his most beloved and well natured slaves back to the UK. But Master now doesn't care about smart fractions.

Humans evolved to survive in their environments. Not all environments were the same.

This may be a revelation to you.

Some promoting physical strength/aggression (Kinshasa), verbal intelligence and merchant adeptness, quant rule following and resource optimisation for Emperor/Pharaoh, etc...and so, now you know why people are very concerned about the 2nd amendment in the US....to protect themselves from Kinshasa. Most gun crime in the USA is....Kinshasa.

When you put Kinshasa into North America, the Carribbean, Rio de Janeiro...you get, Kinshasa in North America, Carribbean and Rio.

It is because they are evolved to survive that way. And it works. They survive.

Illusion is fading a little bit, now?

Race and tribe is not 'mythical'. We have those words because like blue and yellow, they are ways of interpreting difference that humans observe in their circumstances. You can mix blue and yellow, but you won't get blue or yellow. You can mix Celt and Germanic and get a fiery quick decision maker...Ladies and Gents, Donald Trump.

Race is not a social construct. It explains everything about how the world works. Why the 1 verbal SD + above white people control the US and the UK and our newfound obsession with Syria (after our previous make belief ones in Iraq, Libya, Iran, Lebanon, Kuwait etc etc), their 36% rep on the Forbes list, their movies promoting the Blank Slate and white guilt, and of course your inability to question it without dredging up a 50 year old man with thinning hair in a jumpsuit with Auschwitz on the sign above his head as his doe eyes stare at you for compassion. Bad feelz. Wrong. Oh Daddy I'm a good boy. Yes, w e know you want to be a good boy, mr white.

Hypno. Hypno.

Their dominance is mainly psychological and through control of your data through their media. You will never figure it out unless you travel with an open mind, get access to parts of the puzzle like Rushton or have certain hormonal and neuro characteristics that make you immune to Master's hypnosis (and the women will thus love you so, but they can't explain why!)

In time, you will reflect on your own workplaces and wonder why the 100m sprint is black, or walk into an engineering lecture in Caltech and see mainly south and east asians, or why most charity volunteers are whites. Or why only white people seem to be able to write fiction novels not loosely related to themselves and their tribe (affective empathy is most highest in whites, hence open borders)

It explains why countries are poor, high trust/clannish, foreign policy, empire/disintegration, why whites abolished slavery and not arabs and south asians who also practiced it (to this day), the Renaissance/Rome, Gates stupidity in shifting the Malthusian plane to the right for us to enjoy the fruits of greater fertility of Kinshasa and East Asia's growth spurt by rote learning.

In time, many years from now, the Illusion will fade. Trust your instinct in the meantime. How do you naturally react? There is an ancient wisdom in your genes that no brainwashing by the verbal men of the day can completely eradicate with film, pseudo intellectual magazine columns and writing your history textbooks, hence the need for open borders to eradicate.

Ahahahahaha.

[The Philosopher]

NARR = Narrative function

COG = Cognitive function

Soros is an underrated philosopher. He always wanted to be one.

You walk into a pitch black room. Your flashlight is COG and your interpretation of the stuffed moose head on the wall is NARR.

A moose head is not just a moose head. It will have a connection in your mind with another image It may lead to a conjecture on what else is in the room. It has a value judgement.

People with weak NARR and high COG are autistic. I can show you the bell curve data. But their NARR will override your weak NARR, and you will invoke rationalisation to solve dissonance.

[Dave Hansell]

It's really heartwarming to see that Vroomfondle is still peddling the line for rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty, and sometimes even the other way around.

What I'd like to know is where on Amazon or in Waterstones one can get an obviously rare copy of this fabled history book that teaches us about the multiple 'invasions' of these islands from Jews, Hugenots, the Dutch, the Irish, Eastern European and Russian Slavs et al, how the mightiest ship in human history, the Windrush, managed to avoid the Royal Navy blockade and land a screaming hoard of 'genetically' different West Indian and other Commonwealth people onto a beachead to take up residence in these islands, and how it was possible for half the Indian sub continent to relocate without a shot being fired when 'everyone' who is part of the AUPSL&OPTP knows they are all 'genetically' unsuited to achieve such feats?

Confusing different environmental factors of various human societies as evidence of different genetically programmed groups of people limited to specific cultural and other specialisms is anthropological illiteracy on an epic scale and can only have been induced as a result of too much exposure to the mushroom ale. It is fortunate indeed that this rambling evidence free excuse for a theory of how human individuals, groups and societies are constructed, operate and exist is not representative of observable reality because if we had gone down the evolutionary rabbit hole of genetically programmed specialisms rather than versatility we would have ceased to exist as a species eons ago.

It's sad really that some self styled 'philosophers' (sic) remain trapped in a pre-enlightenment mind set thinking that observable and testable evidence is beneath them. Reduced to rambling the equivilant of "millennium hand and shrimp" like the Foul Old Ron character in the Disc world stories in the vainglorious belief that because they say something is so it must by definition be so, pre-assuming, like the philosopher sub group labelled 'economists', what they aim to deduce.

I blame Thatcher 's care in the community policy.

[The Philosopher]

Semanticology is not an argument mon frere.

Your only dialectic point in that unseasoned word salad:

"if we had gone down the evolutionary rabbit hole of genetically programmed specialisms rather than versatility we would have ceased to exist as a species eons ago."

You don't understand Darwin.

Your writing also shows you can't think clearly either.

You never rebutted the 100m sprint, Caltech's lecture hall, white dominated NGOs, Qatar slave labour racket, the Normans and the IQ data that professional psychologists have known for many decades about race or what sport coaches have known for many years about testosterone that I mentioned.

If I linked to all of this, you would still deny because their Teddy Bear is too much to relinquish.

Your stupidity may not kill you, but it will certainly kill the rest of us. Merkel got 2000 German women raped or molested last Xmas. And up to 50 people dead in terrorist incidents.

All because she was told to get more cheap labour due to stagnant returns on capital (because they killed Agg Demand). Merkel has been on both sides of many issues - she's a psychopath, like Hillary. Thats why the mainstream media pushes her so. Thats the creature they want in charge.

You never found it weird how 1 issue 'far right (of Zionist programming)' parties can get double digit popularity in many European countries with intense mainstream media backlash and pro-Blank Slate indoctrination of children? People experience Dieversity in their daily lives. No matter how many times Morgan Freeman provides his wisdom, people's lives are effected.

When the mainstream media has lost its final semblance of credibility, like in the US, the NARR function of people can't override the horror stories people share online. And then, the illusion will finally fade.

That is why they are racing against the clock to replace whites and in time, make comments such as these, illegal.

[Dave Hansell]

"Your writing also shows you can't think clearly either."

Coincidently I was thinking precisely the same about your incoherent evidence free ramblings, which, I have to concede, are not totally without merit due entirely to their pythonesque humorous construction. Have you thought of engaging an agent rather than sitting there in the dark handling yourself?

It would certainly be useful to have some substantive evidence to rebut rather than the evidence free assertions provided so far. Unsubstantiated opinions masquerading as fact just don't make the cut I'm afraid. Fetishising on the small problems whilst giving a free ride to the larger ones is evidence of a reductionist mindset which seeks to know more and more about less and less until it knows everything about nothing - and its certainly beginning to show.