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May 08, 2017



I have no idea what the scale of this index is even beginning to try to tell us.
But there is something strongly counter-intuitive about the recent levels of "uncertainty" (600-1200 on this mysterious scale) relative to the levels supposedly prevailing at the time of the financial crisis.
As you know other measures of risk (I know that's not precisely the same as uncertainty) such as implied volatility in the stockmarket are clearly much much lower.
I think I know which period I consider the more uncertain!!

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