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April 18, 2018



We could save the intellects of a lot of prospective economists from serious damage by requiring that particular book of Elster’s to be compulsory reading for all undergraduates in the subject. Then again, why limit it to prospective economists. Plenty of professionals could learn something too.


Do you ever invest on the basis of these forecasts?

Of course the economists whom we see on TV prognosticating and/or justifying the failure of their last prognostications are completely different from the vast majority of serious academic economists.
The Nobel Prize is not awarded to "forecasters".

derrida derider

Yes, sometimes a strong intuition beats a formal data-driven model. And sometimes the reverse.

The difficulty is obviously knowing which "sometime" dominates in today's decision. Superforecasting's point is simply that knowledge (aka a data-driven perspective) gets a few more sometimes right than intuition does.

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