« In defence of conservative Marxism | Main | The pawn mistake »

February 12, 2019

Comments

Dipper

Aren't economists just predicting last year's growth? Is the correlation with the previous year stronger than the correlation with the predicted year?

As an analogy, making medical predictions is easy. Over 45? Just like last year, but maybe slightly worse. It's easy, and as you point out, largely valueless in that it misses key points.

Marco economists. Like astrologers, but not as entertaining.

Jim

If you say 'Tomorrows weather will be largely like todays, only maybe slightly wetter(or a bit drier, to personal choice)' then you'll be right more often than not, but you'll never predict step changes in the weather, so its actually not much use. Economists do the same. They take this years and add a bit or take a bit off, depending on their own bias/data, and will often be spot on. But never spot the step changes in the pattern. They often get a sort of inkling that things are getting worse, but will often predict a 'soft' slowdown in the economy, never having the balls to go for the change from a +2% growth to a recession in a year, which often does occur.

Robert S Mitchell

GDP is meaningless as a measure. In 2007 the crisis had begun but GDP did not measure it. Economists should acknowledge the dirty little secret that GDP is over half made-up and is uncorrelated with well-being. Economist, give up thy GDP fetish!

Jim

" Economists should acknowledge the dirty little secret that GDP is over half made-up and is uncorrelated with well-being. "

Not least because it assumes that if the State spends £1 on something, that adds £1 to GDP. When its entirely possible, nay probable, that a lot of government spending actually inhibits other people from creating wealth and thus reduces overall GDP.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

blogs I like

Why S&M?

Blog powered by Typepad