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December 04, 2019

Comments

Richard Malim

The really interesting percentages are in the change between the 18-24 yearolds in one take and the same group 5 years later in the 25 to 32 year olds who are the SAME people. That is the chsange that needs measuring.

Leon

The problem is the Tories are also aware of their shrinking base and will come up with strategies to counter it like Brexit. The most obvious would be to carry on down the Trump route with a combo of lying, controlling the media, voter suppression and attacking minority groups. There might come a point where continuing down that path starts to look a lot like fascism and voters are turned off by it. However, I thought Trump would be too toxic for the americans and was proved wrong.

Tasker Dunham

Rig the constituency boundaries, shrink the independent media: this election could be the end of democracy.

Jim

If we're considering shrinking bases, perhaps we should consider the shrinking working class Labour vote........C2DE voters are now more likely to vote Tory than Labour.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-labour-the-party-of-the-working-class

But I suppose that doesn't matter, because university edumacated people are sooo much more important nowadays than the working man (or woman)........

Scratch

"Social grade is, increasingly, a worse way of defining class than the Marxian method of asking: what is this person’s relationship to the means of production?"

The newly distressed professional classes seems to have responded to this situation through the dialectical expedient of declaring the echt working class so far beyond the pale that they no longer constitute a proletariat at all. The execrable Paul Mason, having outlasted the equally charming Stuart Hall and Yasmin Alhabi Brown, seems to be the current lineal heavyweight champion of this position.

I think this is the class equivalent of LBJ's observation (or, more likely, projection) concerning the "lowest white man."

Scurra

The US Republicans are having exactly the same experience - they have found their "baseline" but it is steadily shrinking. Their solution is to attack the systems (gerrymandering, voter registration, census questions etc.) because it is becoming increasingly difficult to actually persuade people of your policies - perhaps ironically because of the confrontational media approach that they originally encouraged.

The Tories are facing a similar problem. I can now see them winning this time (just - which may be a bigger problem for them than they think), but the inexorable slide has been clear for a while now.
The question will be whether they go for the US Republicans approach (there are signs of that, in the voter ID nonsense and so on), or whether they will figure out that electoral reform actually is the only long-term chance they have of ever being part of future governments.
Based on prior evidence, I suspect the former, alas.

Jim

"The Tories are facing a similar problem. I can now see them winning this time (just - which may be a bigger problem for them than they think), but the inexorable slide has been clear for a while now."

That'll be a share of the vote thats gone from 31% in 2001, to 32% in 2005, to 36% in 2010, to 37% in 2015, to 42% in 2017, and looks to be similar or more in 2019.

Much more inexorable sliding like this and they'll be staring down the barrel of 45%+ in a few elections time........disaster!

john b

"C2DE voters are now more likely to vote Tory than Labour"

When you look at the data, this reflects the fact that pensioners and skilled manual workers who own their own homes are nonetheless classed as C2DEs, rather than a genuine shift in working class views.

George Carty

"When you look at the data, this reflects the fact that pensioners and skilled manual workers who own their own homes are nonetheless classed as C2DEs, rather than a genuine shift in working class views."

Plus of course the decline in factory employment means that C2s (skilled manual workers) are increasingly self-employed "white van man" types rather than proletarians in the Marxist sense.

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