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June 18, 2020

Comments

Peter Shaw

@Towerbridge
You look suspiciously like a sock puppet (note the comment time 4 minutes before D) either that or you are just an idiot.

@D

Yet you still do not answer the exit strategy question. No one has. No one wants to be monitored or locked down. The US is giving up, Koreans are losing interest, the state I live is re introducing restrictions. I harp on about Sweden as that is where we are all heading (if we don’t find a vaccine). The only difference as we are destroying our economy and our liberties on the way through lockdown.

So I ask again what is the exit strategy?

Paulc156

@ Towerbridge.
Thanks for the comment.I had assumed that depressions/recessions would naturally lead to increased mortality rates (as Peter Shaw evidently still does). Common sense it seemed. More recently I had read there was rather a lot of persuasive evidence pointing the other way and it's best to have an open mind and just follow the evidence. I think it was Einstein who said of 'common sense'; it was a set of prejudices acquired by the age of 18.

@D
Thanks for your input. Yeh, regards PS couple of speculative economic forecasts they compare Sweden with growth laggards like Italy rather than the EU combined or heaven forbid, Germany. If one does compare to those the differences are marginal. And in fact as with all economic forecasts even in the dullest of times (totally unlike now!) there is always margin of error. The figures quoted ate the mean or average. Once you allow for that margin of error any gains could easily disappear and still be consistent with the same forecast. Something PS may or more likely, may not appreciate.

@Peter Shaw.
1. The first study clearly does take into account mortality trends. I explained how.
But obviously it doesn't suit you to acknowledge it.
2. The second study explicitly noted mortality trends in the abstract. Oh and Princeton is a rather august institution...(unlike trading economics)
3. Yes you did go quite on Brazil v Argentina ;)
4. Regards exit. Rather than point you to strategies now being pursued in Germany, Taiwan or Singapore. See Australia.
You obviously live in Victoria as you seem rather alarmed by the reintroduction of some lockdown measures. You had several hundred new cases a day in March. The latest pick up is seeing a whopping 18 new cases a day. Hardly any new cases in the rest of Australia for weeks. Lighten up! The spike in your state is more of a little prick. Ironic huh? ;)

Peter Shaw

@Paulc156

1. It does not ad
2. You are probably losing about this as well but I’ve not read the article
3. Again you are lieing. Argentina and Brazil are headed to the same place just on different schedules. Argentina is still in the exponential growth phase.
4. I’m aware of the strategies but as I said you can squash it but if you don’t kill it (worldwide), it will come back. This is wgar is happening in my home state of Victoria.

 Billy Hereford

The events on this side of the pond largely bears out what Peter Shaw is saying. The virus is not making a comeback in the places where it took hold (who knows if this is herd immunity or not)

But in others states the lockdown has lifted and it is back. It is unlikely lockdown will be back people don't want it, they just want to get on with their lives.

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