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June 12, 2020

Comments

Peter Shaw

@PaulC156

So what is some random swedish officials say they could have done things better. I agree they could (I said we should protect the vulnerable).

I also did not say Sweden would suffer no conequences (it is a small open economy after all). What I said is that it will suffer less economically than comparble countries. This is clearly correct (happy to track down stats etc).

Overall Swedens death rate is less per capita that the UKs. This is a fact and it will likely remain that way. What the death rate was at some point two weeks ago is irrelevant

Instead of muddying the waters with humbug address the core points I made.

1.There is no evidence that full lockdowns save lives. This is likely as on a per country basis there is no correlation between locking down and lower death rates


2. That countries that lockdown harm their economy more than countries that don´t (this would seem logically true, but time will tell)

3. That the health consequences of locking down are in themselves worse than the virus. Obviously this is unproven. BUT there are a huge number of things that are bad for long term health that are manifesting as a consequnce of the lockdown.

It might pay to read your history and gain some perspective. I quoted the Hong Kong flu to show that we have been here before. Thankfully back then we did not detroy the economy and our way of life: This time we may not be so lucky if we keep listening to people like you.

Paulc156

@Dipper.
"We (the Royal 'we'...or just 'you?) are not under any obligation to agree with your particular viewpoint, or in fact required to give it any time at all." Dipper.

Dipper, in case you ate unaware, you are writing on a blog with interested parties. If you reckon you are too 'expert' for such a blog then why not go find a blog more suited? I do not care one jot how high or low you rate me. Should I?
Nor was my post even addressed to you that you should feel compelled to respond.

Meanwhile I cite above, Swedens lead epidemiologist and his predecessor.
I bring my opinion to the discussion as well as 'evidence' to support that opinion. So far I have heard a lot of the former from you and Peter Shaw. Precious little of the latter.


D

"Likewise, voters don't like admitting, even to themselves that they were wrong. And if we don't want to believe something, we easily find reasons not to. As Leon Festinger showed, people can stick to their beliefs even after they have been falsified."

Dipper

@ D "As Leon Festinger showed, people can stick to their beliefs even after they have been falsified." Criticism from people with a vested interest in criticising does not constitute falsification.

@ Paulc156 I didn't say I was too expert for here. I just denied the self-proclaimed expertise of others. When academics produce a wide range of views I think it is safe to say this stuff is hard. As for evidence, I've done quite a lot of reading in The Spectator as well as other places where analysis appears. But I'm not going to spend an hour or two going back over all that stuff just to save you the bother.

Paulc156

@Peter Shaw
So I should read my history 're previous flu outbreak in Asia?

Isn't it just a little ironic that the nation's who instituted the quickest and most draconian lockdowns achieved the lowest death rates from covid 19 and exited the lockdown fastest. Guess what? They were mostly in Asia! Lol!

So I guess they must have read their history pretty well huh?!

Of course the star performer in Europe is Germany. Lockdown early and test, track and trace writ large. UK it appears were not too keen on an early lockdown nor were we able to make use of the test/trace capacity Germany, Singapore, China etc etc could call upon.

Also plenty of data on the US which is confirming that those states which are relaxing lockdowns prematurely, solely for economic reasons are suffering persistently higher strains on health systems than more cautious states. See Arizona and Texas for example. I would imagine any economic gains they may get will dissipate rather quickly.

And Swedes who largely supported their Gov's approach earlier on are changing their minds somewhat. Confidence in Löfven’s government’s ability to handle Covid-19 fell to 45 per cent in early June, down 18 points since April. Go figure.

Sorry Peter Shaw, you just read the history and that clearly doesn't mean you understood much of it.

Peter Shaw

Paulc156,

The only point you actually address is about the economic impact in Sweden but you provide no data, and are wrong in your claims. Sweden’s economy grew in the first quarter of the year. It will fall this quarter but logically should grow faster than others who must remain restricted

https://fee.org/articles/sweden-sees-economic-growth-in-1st-quarter-despite-global-pandemic/

You don’t address my point about lockdowns not saving lives. As I said there is no correlation between countries that lockdown and death rates. And in fact in America the states that have locked down hardest like NY and New Jersey had higher death rates

You don’t address my point about the health consequences of lockdown being far worse than the virus long term. We won’t know this for years obviously but again a historical perspective shows this likely, for example life expectancy growth flatten off in the 1930s (compared to the 20s and 40s).

Muddying the waters is not arguing It is being an A-hole

The Hong Kong flu is called was called that due to its origin Btw (not its effect). I mentioned it to demonstrate that we’ve been here before. We know viruses burn out. The stats indicate covid19 is past its peak and it will kill less than previous recent pandemics . Now that we know this it’s time to stop alarming people and move on.

Bert Schlitz

Lol, Sweden is not close to herd immunity. New diseases like covid 19 take 18-24 months to blow through enough of the population. The weakening of UV in August will begin increasing viral loads while the 3rd mutation takes place.

Neolibs like dipper, Jim and Shaw crack me up. Much like the 1957, your precious cosmopolitan capitalist junk was going to hit skids. Maybe bisexual, mongrel Nigel farage can join you in your globalist scam. Pumping in more illegals is a Farage specialty. I am sure he is down in Africa working on the next "ship".

Fwiw, please let it go through, herd immunity kills off old useless neolibs. 100000 dead would be a cleansing.

Paulc156

@Peter Shaw
"The only point you actually address is about the economic impact in Sweden but you provide no data"

You mean data on a recession that is forecast to happen in the future?
1.Swedes already locked out of neighbouring Nordic states who are allowing travel between each other.
2.Swedish exports to states in lockdown are tricky. International supply chains of manufacturers are disrupted.
3."...The Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, has an even gloomier outlook, estimating that GDP will contract by 7-10 per cent, with unemployment peaking at between 9 and 10.4 per cent. These are disastrous figures for the Scandinavian country."

https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e

"And in fact in America the states that have locked down hardest like NY and New Jersey had higher death rates" P Shaw.

Look at the data on states coming out of lockdown early. New cases over 14 day period ramping up in most of them.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

"You don’t address my point about the health consequences of lockdown being far worse than the virus long term." P Shaw

Your point is rather like the coming Swedish recession...without data. You have no idea what numbers will die of cancer or commit suicide (those that steer clear of your posts should avoid that fate).
Nor can the 30s depression where mass starvation and buddy can you spare a dime took centre stage be used as a serious comparison. At least not if you are intent on leaving the waters un- muddied. :)

HK flu yada yada...You keep ignoring awkward facts alreafy pointed out to you. Like I said, just look at HK, China, Singapore, Taiwan and even a someone as dense as yourself should recognise that those very states who have experience of previous epidemics have fared best through rapid lockdown and efficient Track and Trace. They were ready we weren't. Or would you lecture Germany on how it could have managed the pandemic better? Only an A-hole might I suppose...

Peter Shaw

@Paulc156

Time to put your lies/cherry picking in context.

1. Denmark is forecast to do worse that Sweden economically .

https://tradingeconomics.com/denmark/forecast


2. Case numbers are irrelevant, you can spike case numbers by testing. Death rates are falling in almost every us state. States with no lockdown have had less overall deaths. As I said no evidence lockdown works once the virus is endemic.

3. You can’t have data about the past. But we can learn from historical experience. The historical experience is very clear. Depressions cost huge numbers of lives. Lockdown and hysteria create are creating a recession (maybe a depression). We’ve had far worse pandemics (two in living memory) but showed perspective and did not destroy our economy.

Stop alarming people

Paulc156

@Peter Shaw
You have a knack of doing precisely that which you accuse me of.
You cherry pick a forecast from the less than stellar Trading Economics website.
The data I referred you to was from the Swedish National Bank. In any case it seems that the economic outcome for Sweden is quite uncertain and when you consider the deaths per capita in Sweden are about 10 times higher than in other Nordic countries including Denmark your preferred economic boom for Sweden is a case of the wish being father to the thought.

Regards your final point about the loss of lives in recessions outweighing the lives saved by lockdowns you are ignoring the fact that there is no evidence that it is true. And that on average, economic downturns seem to lead to fewer deaths, not more.

So what is it Peter, if Sweden's relative economic performance is NOT markedly different to it's near neighbours despite your cherry picked report found after hours of trawling the internet AND recessions do not lead to a net increase in mortality rates...then what the hell is the thread that your argument hangs on exactly?
Stop alarming people with predictions of death not backed up by evidence and recognise that "the cities that had more aggressive public health responses to the 1918 flu pandemic fared better economically."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/recessions-dont-lead-to-an-overall-increase-in-deaths/%3famp=1

Peter Shaw

1. My data is the top result in google and so far Sweden has done better. Just admit your wrong

2.. you don’t even dispute this now as the data is clear once the virus is endemic, lockdown is pointless. And as I said countries that lockdown have no exit starategy.

3. That study does not adjust for the upward trend in life expectancy. 1930s show a clear slowing of the life expectancy growth trend. Then we had a work war.

https://u.demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure2.html

The evidence is clear lockdown achieves nothing and will cost lives in the long term

Paulc156

@Peter Shaw
"My data is the top result in google..."
Lol.

The Riksbanken is the oldest central bank on the planet and has no vested interest in talking down Sweden's economic prospects, but they do it anyhow. Smell the coffee.

The Trading Economics forecast is only for the next 18 months and looking backwards Sweden unsurprisingly has higher growth for the last quarter so it's not too difficult to extrapolate a higher growth rate for a relatively short period. Looking ahead even a little beyond 2021 the comparative growth rates are much harder to predict as we already see Sweden disadvantaged in terms of contacts with it's northern neighbours as they all exit lockdowns and Sweden's death rate per capita is up to 10 times greater!

In any case I merely claim that comparative growth rates in this highly unique circumstance are extremely uncertain and that Sweden's central banks own assessment merely makes that point clear. Your insistence that we should assume significantly faster growth rates for Sweden over the next couple of years is laudable but, come on please?

Your dismissal of the mass of evidence refuting your simplistic claims of 'recessions cause increased mortality rates' with a single line of data on life expectancy trend circa 1930's is a joke maybe?
The evidence refuting your 'contention' is repeated in almost every major recession in the US and elsewhere since the 30's too!!
I really think you will need to open up your mind a little more to the possibility that you were just parroting a popular myth regards mortality rates and recessions and look a little more at the evidence. Perhaps?

Maybe start by reading this Nature article
titled 'How the next recession could save lives' published 23rd Jan. 2019. Then you could look at the numerous links provided in the linked article of my previous post.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0#ref-CR1

Good day.

Peter Shaw

@PaulC156

Your the one questioning the reliability of forecasts. I’m not doubting the forecast for Sweden. Just that providing evidence that the forecasts for Denmark are worse. As logic would and the top forecast predict (but apparently not you).

As I have shown there is no evidence that once the virus is endemic you cannot stop it with lockdown. Current (and past) experience of this virus (and others) indicates this as do the statistics. Apparently not you.

The economic data shows the economy is collapsing. And given we’ve had far worse pandemic in living memory (with little economic impact) this shows it is the lockdown (or the hysteria associated with it). The article you link references a flawed study (no adjustments for the upward trend in life expectancy) and you obviously have read read any of the links as if you did you would have realised that! As I said and have shown depressions costs lives and people who have read their history know this.

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