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January 13, 2021


Big Nose

Basic Income also supports basic demand which stabilises jobs.

Frank Little

The benefits of forecasting surely become apparent when outcomes differ from plans based on the forecast. For instance, if Gordon Brown had taken note of the 2000/2001 deviations from Treasury forecasts he would have re-examined Labour's fiscal strategy and avoided his government's and the country's later troubles.


Forecasts are like nanny's hand, something to hold on to in a scary world. Or like an insurance policy - 'well they said it would be OK', CYA.

At one time I did industrial market research forecasts. Really little more than guesswork, but what else does anyone have when building a big factory for widgets. Stick to real estate, you know it makes (made?) sense.

The trick was not to get found out...


January 13, 2021



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I have not spotted any link to it, so I am surprised that this article does not mention NN Taleb and his (low) opinion of superforecasters, and in particular this point:

“Science is not about making single points predictions but understanding properties (which can sometimes be tested by single points).”

“That the right balance between noise and signal REQUIRES producing forecasts as if they were prices, buying and selling at every forecast. In other words SKIN IN THE GAME while forecasting. Otherwise it is bullshit.”

“In other words your forecast reflects the uncertainty built in because it raises low probabilities (below ½) and lower high prob so you converge to ½ under maximal uncertainty.”


I am surprised that this article does not mention NN Taleb and his (low) opinion of superforecasters...

[ Absolutely; terrific comment. ]


January 14, 2021



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January 15, 2021



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January 16, 2021



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James Charles

Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxinAu8ORxM&feature=emb_logo

is a 'forecast'?

“ . . . our best estimate is that the net energy
33:33 per barrel available for the global
33:36 economy was about eight percent
33:38 and that in over the next few years it
33:42 will go down to zero percent
33:44 uh best estimate at the moment is that
33:46 actually the
33:47 per average barrel of sweet crude
33:51 uh we had the zero percent around 2022
33:56 but there are ways and means of
33:58 extending that so to be on the safe side
34:00 here on our diagram
34:02 we say that zero percent is definitely
34:05 around 2030 . . .
34:43 need net energy from oil and [if] it goes
34:46 down to zero
34:48 uh well we have collapsed not just
34:50 collapse of the oil industry
34:52 we have collapsed globally of the global
34:54 industrial civilization this is what we
34:56 are looking at at the moment . . . “


NN Taleb is a prime example of the Toby Young phenomena.

The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is a project "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.

It was a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) in the United States.

Predictions are scored using Brier scores.The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information.

It is not about being clairvoyants but using intelligence in a structured and disciplined way and removing all traces of ego to see what is more likely than other events to come to pass.

A 30% advantage over competitors in business or sports betting would make those superforecasters very rich indeed.

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