« On fantasy politics | Main | Debates, fake and genuine »

January 13, 2021

Comments

Big Nose

Basic Income also supports basic demand which stabilises jobs.

Frank Little

The benefits of forecasting surely become apparent when outcomes differ from plans based on the forecast. For instance, if Gordon Brown had taken note of the 2000/2001 deviations from Treasury forecasts he would have re-examined Labour's fiscal strategy and avoided his government's and the country's later troubles.

jim

Forecasts are like nanny's hand, something to hold on to in a scary world. Or like an insurance policy - 'well they said it would be OK', CYA.

At one time I did industrial market research forecasts. Really little more than guesswork, but what else does anyone have when building a big factory for widgets. Stick to real estate, you know it makes (made?) sense.

The trick was not to get found out...

ltr

January 13, 2021

Coronavirus

UK

Cases   ( 3,211,576)
Deaths   ( 84,767)

Deaths per million   ( 1,245)

Germany

Cases   ( 1,980,861)
Deaths   ( 44,404)

Deaths per million   ( 529)

Blissex

I have not spotted any link to it, so I am surprised that this article does not mention NN Taleb and his (low) opinion of superforecasters, and in particular this point:

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/on-single-point-forecasts-for-fat-tailed-variables/
“Science is not about making single points predictions but understanding properties (which can sometimes be tested by single points).”

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1210328617399533572
“That the right balance between noise and signal REQUIRES producing forecasts as if they were prices, buying and selling at every forecast. In other words SKIN IN THE GAME while forecasting. Otherwise it is bullshit.”

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1299069089353170944
“In other words your forecast reflects the uncertainty built in because it raises low probabilities (below ½) and lower high prob so you converge to ½ under maximal uncertainty.”

ltr

I am surprised that this article does not mention NN Taleb and his (low) opinion of superforecasters...

[ Absolutely; terrific comment. ]

ltr

January 14, 2021

Coronavirus

UK

Cases   ( 3,260,258)
Deaths   ( 86,015)

Deaths per million   ( 1,263)

Germany

Cases   ( 2,003,985)
Deaths   ( 45,492)

Deaths per million   ( 542)

ltr

January 15, 2021

Coronavirus

UK

Cases   ( 3,316,019)
Deaths   ( 87,295)

Deaths per million   ( 1,282)

Germany

Cases   ( 2,023,779)
Deaths   ( 46,537)

Deaths per million   ( 554)

ltr

January 16, 2021

Coronavirus

UK

Cases   ( 3,357,361)
Deaths   ( 88,590)

Deaths per million   ( 1,301)

Germany

Cases   ( 2,035,657)
Deaths   ( 46,978)

Deaths per million   ( 560)

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

blogs I like

Blog powered by Typepad