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June 27, 2021

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aragon

Life is hard in the Peanut Gallery.

You doomed only to see the big picture, with all the detail lost in the FUD.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty_and_doubt

There is a very good article in the Guardian on Housing.

Cutting to the chase...

"For a while, this form of "residential capitalism" can support consumption even when incomes stagnate. But it is economically inefficient and drives inequality and financial instability."

Forty years is a long while...

But to borrow from Chess, we are in the End Game.

Not because of the Pandemic but we are simply running out of road...

Are those screams of 'Afford-ability' from the front?

Sure people will sacrifice their first born, to get and stay on the housing ladder. (Gaussian Cupola).

But like all Ponzi schemes there is a need for a constant stream of new marks to sustain the fraud.

And simply put rising house prices need falling interest rates.

But what is that ... a hard floor emerging through the mist. Zero bound!

Couple this to massive leverage and the emperor has no clothes.

Can direct funding like help to buy keep the show on the road?

Peanuts for all

Or if that's too subtle, our present situation in the North is your future in the South.

Speaking of the future the whole economy is a fraud. You could say a House of cards.

But that is for another day.


aragon

A contrast to ltr's posts now the Buddhist Monks appear to have stoped self-immolating in Tibet (They must be happy, now?)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-chinese-communist-party-fears-its-bloody-history

"But the pomp and glitz surrounding this week’s centenary celebrations belies an unsteadiness on the part of the party’s leadership. The CCP is, like a bully, deeply insecure at heart."

ltr

A contrast to ltr's posts...

[ When reading what is obviously rubbish, at least recognize that it is rubbish even if you decide to use it. Why deceive yourself? At least understand how stable China is and how admired is the government by the Chinese. Self-deception leads to making terrible mistakes.

Spectator on China is rubbish; at least know that.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FbV5

August 4, 2014

Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France and China, 1977-2020

(Percent change)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FbV7

August 4, 2014

Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France and China, 1977-2020

(Indexed to 1977)

Lidl_Janus

This thread has managed to go 40+ comments on the subjects of 1. economic stagnation and 2. China, and somehow the demographic brick wall China is about to slam right into, with all the attendant economic effects, has gone completely unmentioned.

(Well, now it's mentioned, but still).

aragon

@Lidl

What this one?

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/07/china-communists-demographics/619312/

"The demographic drag will be so severe, Mark Williams, the firm’s chief Asia economist, told me, that he thinks China’s economy will likely never surpass America’s."

Automation may resolve this issue.

Also China does not play nice with others. Their desire for world domination is showing.

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