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November 16, 2022

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Aaron Headly

A slight tangent, but an interesting one to me, is that Beane's new approach was easily (and successfully) copied pretty quickly, which erased the advantage — for Beane.
The players that are considered ugly by the standards of baseball aesthetics but that now have prettier stats analysis continue to enjoy better paychecks and more playing opportunities than before thanks to Beane.
Result.

ltr

Equally, though, economic changes after the 90s requires yet another rethinking of social democratic politics. Most Blairites and Corbynites are too tribal to see it, but in important respects Corbyn was the heir to Blair....

[ Please explain this, since Blairites set out to ruin Jeremy Corbyn and have with repeated falseness managed to throw-out Corbyn from Labour. What was done to Corbyn was beyond disgraceful and wildly harmful when an alternative voice on UK policy was sorely needed. ]

Ernie Bornheimer

Seems like the "human dimension" could benefit from rules of thumb such as Chesterton's Fence.

rsm

Is it too scary to imagine improvising on Bach's compositions?

James Woods

Regarding your remark about science, I am aware of a replication crisis in psychology but not in the physical sciences. This is not to say the physical sciences don’t have their moments but the majority of findings are reproducible.

rsm

Were epicyclists easily able to replicate their failure to find parallax motion of the stars, thus proving that the earth could not orbit the sun? How do you know current measurements aren't supporting models just as wrong as the epicycle model?

Also see widely-eyed optimistic Feynman in Cargo Cult Science:

《Millikan measured the charge on an electron by an experiment with falling oil drops and got an answer which we now know not to be quite right. It’s a little bit off, because he had the incorrect value for the viscosity of air. It’s interesting to look at the history of measurements of the charge of the electron, after Millikan. If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bigger than Millikan’s, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher.

Why didn’t they discover that the new number was higher right away? It’s a thing that scientists are ashamed of—this history—because it’s apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too high above Millikan’s, they thought something must be wrong—and they would look for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number closer to Millikan’s value they didn’t look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that. We’ve learned those tricks nowadays, and now we don’t have that kind of a disease.》

ltr

Most Blairites and Corbynites are too tribal to see it, but in important respects Corbyn was the heir to Blair....

[ I have thought carefully about this, but still do not understand. Corbyn was all about traditional Labour and about dispute settlement in foreign policy. I find Corbyn completely different from Blair, and praise the difference.

Blairites maliciously set out to destroy Corbyn at a terrible cost to Britain. ]

ltr

Just finished "Making Decisions"; really excellent.

Thank you. Now to consider the "but, but, but" and this column again. My leaning however is that Britain is entirely beset by making self-defeating policy decisions and sorely needs a shaking. Where the shaking comes from is unknown to me.

aragon

Finance and Financial Innovation is an Oxymoron.

Finance should be about allocating scare resources to provide the best returns on those resources moderated by the desires of the public/consumers, as should Government.

Of course that description does not represent the reality of greed, power and fraud.

Leverage will just magnify your gains and losses (when the TSHTF: see Minsky) as it always does.

But Finance is too big to fail, unlike Energy which is more fundimental to our lives (but you need some knowlege of Physics to appreciate that truth), so must be rescued by the state, to rinse and repeat, at the expense of the non-financial economy. (aka the business cycle).

As for Warren Buffits moat, the only moat that matters is the Government.
In control of physical resources or imaginary (interllectual property), you only have a moat while the state says so (or geography dictates it).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-explains-moat-principle-164442359.html

Therefore the state detemines the inequality and distribution of wealth.

Of course our most recent example of financial excess is web3

https://g147.medium.com/introducing-web-3-0-an-arrogant-treacherous-successor-doomed-to-fail-8b90529bb7be

"In fact the entire Blockchain arena is filled with either delusional or degenerate people who are inexperienced &, in no way, better than their predecessors."

Blockchain is just a distributed database based on consensus, that uses electricty ot maintain a quorum (or proof of stake for etherum - what was FTX's stake? $16B to zero in days)

For more amusement see: https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/

"Genesis warns of bankruptcy if they can't raise $1 billion"

But the interllectual pigmys in Westminster want(ed) the UK to be the best place to trade Web3 currencies and NFT's. (Currently offshore) and no doubt deposit protection insurance so the public can be on the hook when it fails.

Real innovation like the industrial revolution benifits society, like the industrial revolution and should not be captured by companies not even in patents (a 20 year monopoly of copyright a 140 year monopoly).

Like in I.T true innovation should be continious and give innovateorsa a dilema (Clay Christenson) and not specious like fashion which is just a rotation of styles and colours (but at least it doesn't need copyright of patents.

Moats are only demanded when innovation has slowed or ceased.

Which gives power to the moat builders, and why Britain circles the plug hole. Returns from FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) and interllectual property are symtoms of stagnation and decline.

On immigration, recessions are supposed to lead to corporarte failure, and unemployment, freeing resources, Shumpters 'Creative distruction', So more workers are about to become available regardless of the wrechedness of thier situation.

Companies should have to compete for labour rather than economicly enslave the working class. But as the people at Newport Wafer Fab (NPWF) know the British Government, City and Management, are incompetent as so sell the silver to anyone with oil and gas or just about anything else.

So bankrupsy faces the NPWF like the rest of the UK economy, due to resource starvation and mismangement, as Finance lives high on the hog, with bonuses, deregualtion and fraud all backed by UK Government.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/11/21/microchip-factory-staff-accuse-shapps-putting-600-job-risk-blocking/

"Staff at the plant have said Nexperia’s ownership brought certainty, added 100 jobs and led to bonuses."

p.s.
(Right decision with regard NPWF as they can sink with the rest of us - the logic of the press gang).

p.p.s
How to win friends in the Plutocracy!

aragon

Philip Hammond was an investor, Rushi wanted the postoffice to issue an NFT.
Kier wouldn't know a blockchain from a padlock. Everybody from Regan to Trump have tried the tax-cutting (and failed, as has Neoliberalism in general).

Finance is Crypto Currency with deposit protection insurance and the Bank of England.

The household model of economic is conventional thinking.

Not all innovation is good, but lack of innovation is decline.

The pink paper:
https://www.ft.com/content/ac058ede-80cb-4aa6-8394-941443eec7e3

"The overriding goal of policymakers should be to keep crypto systemically irrelevant. The best way to do this is let it implode under the pressure of its unsafe and unsound business practices."

As for finance Glass-Stegal anyone?

Masters of the Universe - See Mr Robot series 1.


aragon

The economist on Crypto Currencies.

Is Crypto dead, as dead as a norwegian blue nailed to it's pearch.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Parrot_sketch

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/11/17/is-this-the-end-of-crypto?itm_source=parsely-api

Sorry FTX went from $32bn to bankrupt in days. SBF's personal wealth was $16Bn.

"The underlying technology continues to improve. An upgrade to Ethereum’s blockchain in September radically reduced its energy consumption, paving the way for it to handle high transaction volumes efficiently."

No, it just consolidates the control with whales, like SBF, and devn algorithmic stable coins?

"Stablecoins, which are meant to hold their value in real-world currency, should be regulated as if they were payment instruments at banks. "

Banks are only stable because they are made
so by the state and central banks, and the real economy behind them.

"For crypto to rise again, it must find a valid use that leaves the dodginess behind."

No it's turtles (fraud) all the way down.
Finish taking the Kool Aid.

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